2024-11-01 15:09
The US economy added only 12,000 jobs in October. Canada’s economy made no change in August. The US core PCE increased by 0.3%, leaving Fed rate cut bets unchanged. The USD/CAD price analysis shows new bearish sentiment as the dollar collapses after a dismal employment report. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar is ending October with its largest monthly loss in two years. Meanwhile, market participants remained cautious ahead of the US presidential election. Data on Friday revealed that the US economy added only 12,000 jobs in October, a massive decline from the previous month. At the same time, it was well below estimates of 106,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. This week, the US dollar paused its rally as data showed a mixed picture of the economy. As expected, the core PCE increased by 0.3%, leaving Fed rate cut bets unchanged. Meanwhile, unemployment claims eased more than expected, showing tight labor market conditions. However, the employment cost index dropped. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar strengthened but remained near a 12-week low on Friday after lackluster domestic data and a drop in risk appetite. Data on Thursday revealed that Canada’s economy made no change in August. The pause came after a 0.1% expansion in the previous month. Markets are betting on more rate cuts by the Bank of Canada after it made a massive move at the last meeting. BoC governor Tiff Macklem noted that the central bank would continue lowering borrowing costs if the economy performs as expected. At the same time, the loonie fell due to poor risk appetite. Market participants have gradually grown risk-averse due to the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US presidential election. USD/CAD key events today ISM Manufacturing PMI USD/CAD technical price analysis: Bears battle for control at the 30-SMA On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is testing the 30-SMA line, a sign that bears are challenging the uptrend. The price has remained in a bullish trajectory, trading above the 30-SMA, with the RSI above 50. –Are you interested to learn more about forex signals? Check our detailed guide- However, the RSI has been showing fading momentum, as it has made a bearish divergence. If bears strengthen further, the price will break below the SMA to retest the 1.3825 support level. Such an outcome would indicate a shift in sentiment and likely reversal. On the other hand, if the SMA holds firm, bulls might reach the 1.3950 resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/01/usd-cad-price-analysis-dollar-slips-after-weak-nfp/
2024-11-01 09:30
Data on Thursday showed the core PCE price index increased by 0.3%. US initial jobless claims fell to 216,000, missing estimates of 229,000 claims. Economists are not expecting a rate cut in Australia until next year. The AUD/USD outlook shows a bearish sentiment as the dollar gains ground ahead of the crucial US nonfarm payrolls report. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll revealed that economists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to hold rates on Tuesday. The dollar has fluctuated due to uncertainty ahead of crucial US data and the presidential election. Data on Thursday showed the core PCE price index increased by 0.3%, in line with expectations. As a result, there was little change to rate-cut expectations. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims fell to 216,000, missing estimates of 229,000 claims. The employment data indicated a tight labor market, in line with recent upbeat reports, boosting the dollar. The US economy has remained resilient in the face of high interest rates. As a result, markets have slashed expectations for an aggressive Fed rate-cutting cycle. At the same time, policymakers have assumed a more cautious tone. Meanwhile, there is a higher likelihood that the central bank will implement only one rate cut this year. However, this outlook will depend on incoming data. Today, the US will release the nonfarm payrolls report, showing job growth in October. Economists expect employers to hire 106,000 workers during the month. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate might hold steady at 4.1%. Better-than-expected numbers will lower Fed rate cut expectations, boosting the dollar. On the other hand, if employment is poor, rate-cut bets will increase and put downward pressure on the greenback. Nevertheless, caution will remain as markets await the presidential election. Meanwhile, economists are not expecting a rate cut in Australia until next year. Major local banks are forecasting the first cut in February. Further delays will keep the Aussie steady against its peers. AUD/USD key events today US average hourly earnings m/m US nonfarm employment change ISM manufacturing PMI AUD/USD technical outlook: Bears maintain control after 30-SMA retest On the technical side, the AUD/USD price is falling after finding resistance at the 30-SMA. The price has traded in a strong downtrend below the SMA and recently broke below the 0.6600 support level. Meanwhile, the RSI has stayed below 50, favoring bearish momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about forex signals? Check our detailed guide- After making a new low, AUD/USD rose to retest the SMA. Currently, it is bouncing lower, with bears eying the 0.6501 level. A lower low will strengthen the bearish bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/01/aud-usd-outlook-dollar-soars-ahead-of-us-nfp/
2024-10-31 11:10
The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged on Thursday. Japan’s ruling party lost its majority seats. The US dollar paused its rally before the nonfarm payrolls report. The USD/JPY outlook has turned slightly bearish due to an absence of dovish remarks at the Bank of Japan policy meeting. At the same time, the greenback lost ground after mixed data in the previous session. Market focus has shifted to the looming NFP report and the US presidential election. The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged on Thursday as expected. However, market participants looked forward to more dovish remarks after Japan’s recent election. Japan’s ruling party lost its majority seats, creating uncertainty about the political landscape. Therefore, traders were pricing a more cautious tone and messaging about a delay in rate hikes. However, there was no such message, allowing the yen to strengthen. Meanwhile, the US dollar paused its rally before the nonfarm payrolls report and the US election. Recent reports have shown a mixed picture of the economy, leaving Fed rate cut bets mostly unchanged. On Wednesday, data showed a better-than-expected increase in private employment. Private employers created an additional 233,000 jobs in October, well above forecasts of 110,000. A different report revealed that the economy expanded by 2.8% in the third quarter, below estimates of 3.0%. Nevertheless, the labor sector has remained resilient. Therefore, there is less pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs. All eyes are now on the PCE price index and the nonfarm payrolls report. Economists expect slower job growth in October. At the same time, traders are cautious ahead of the US presidential election, which might affect fiscal and monetary policy. USD/JPY key events today US core PCE price index m/m US Employment Cost Index q/q US unemployment claims USD/JPY technical outlook: Bears win battle for control at the 30-SMA On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken below the 30-SMA and the 153.00 support level, indicating a bearish sentiment shift. At the same time, the RSI has fallen below 50, suggesting solid bearish momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about forex signals? Check our detailed guide- The shift comes after the RSI made a bearish divergence, signaling fading bullish momentum. Still, bears must make lower highs and lows to confirm a new downtrend. If this happens, the price will revisit support levels, including 150.00 and 148.00. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/31/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-rebounds-after-boj-meeting/
2024-10-31 10:03
The Bank of Canada will likely remain aggressively dovish. Rising oil prices supported the loonie. The economy expanded by 2.8% in the third quarter. The USD/CAD forecast points to further weakness for the Canadian dollar amid an aggressively dovish Bank of Canada. Meanwhile, the dollar eased slightly after data showed weaker-than-expected US economic growth. The Bank of Canada will likely remain aggressively dovish after the governor projected more rate cuts. Canada’s central bank lowered borrowing costs by 50-bps at the last meeting amid pressure to revive economic growth. Tiff Macklem noted on Wednesday that there would be more to come if the economy performs as expected. Aggressive rate cuts will keep downward pressure on the Canadian dollar, allowing USD/CAD to climb. However, rising oil prices supported the loonie. Oil rose in the previous session due to a bigger-than-expected drop in US crude inventories, which pointed to solid demand. At the same time, the likelihood of a delay in the planned OPEC+ output increase helped boost prices. Meanwhile, the US dollar remained fragile after mixed data in the previous session. Notably, the ADP employment report revealed an addition of 233,000 private jobs in October. Economists had expected a smaller addition of 110,000 jobs. However, a separate report showed the economy expanding by 2.8% in the third quarter, smaller than the forecast of 3.0%. Weak economic demand supported expectations for a Fed rate cut in November. The next major reports include the core PCE and the nonfarm payrolls report. The PCE report will show the state of inflation, influencing the outlook for future Fed policy moves. Meanwhile, the NFP report will likely show slower job growth from the previous month, solidifying bets for a November rate cut. Meanwhile, Canada will release its GDP report. USD/CAD key events today Canada GDP m/m US core PCE price index m/m US Employment Cost Index q/q US unemployment claims USD/CAD technical forecast: Fading momentum On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is climbing higher, above the 30 SMA, indicating a bullish bias. Bulls have set their sights on the 1.3950 key level. However, momentum has fallen since the price made a high near the 1.3825 resistance level. The RSI has made a bearish divergence, which is a reversal signal. –Are you interested to learn more about forex signals? Check our detailed guide- If bulls regain momentum, the uptrend will continue. Otherwise, the price might drop below the 30-SMA to retest the 1.3825 level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/31/usd-cad-forecast-further-weakness-for-loonie-amid-data/
2024-10-30 11:03
US job vacancies fell to 7.44 million, missing estimates of 7.98 million. US consumer confidence jumped to 108.7, well above forecasts of 99.5. The upcoming US presidential election is causing uncertainty. The EUR/USD forecast shows a return of bullish momentum after a long decline. The greenback eased after employment figures in the previous session revealed unexpected weakness. At the same time, the uncertainty surrounding the US election has sent traders to the safe-haven gold. The US released mixed economic reports on Tuesday on consumer sentiment and employment. However, market participants focused on the employment figures since the Fed closely monitors the labor sector. The JOLTs job openings report revealed that vacancies fell to 7.44 million, missing estimates of 7.98 million. The decline showed that there were fewer open positions for the unemployed, indicating weaker demand for labor. The soft figures solidified bets for a November Fed rate cut. Meanwhile, consumer confidence jumped to 108.7, well above forecasts of 99.5. However, this was not enough to significantly shift the outlook for rate cuts. Traders are on edge ahead of GDP and monthly employment figures that will show the state of the US economy. The nonfarm payrolls report will likely reveal an addition of 111,000 jobs in October, well below September’s job growth. A miss would raise fears of a weak labor sector, boosting Fed rate cut expectations. On the other hand, continued resilience might lower the chances of two rate cuts before the year ends. At the same time, the upcoming US presidential election is causing uncertainty, sending traders to the sidelines. The race between Trump and Kamala is tight, meaning there is no certainty over the possible outcome. Consequently, market volatility will likely increase before, during, and after the voting. EUR/USD key events today German preliminary CPI m/m US ADP nonfarm employment change US advance GDP q/q EUR/USD technical forecast: Bullish RSI divergence On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has made a new high above the 30-SMA, supporting a bullish bias. At the same time, the price trades above the SMA, and the RSI is in bullish territory above 50. –Are you interested to learn more about forex signals? Check our detailed guide- The downtrend recently paused after the RSI made a bullish divergence. The weakness in the downtrend allowed bulls to take charge by breaking above the SMA. However, to solidify the new bias, the price must stay above the SMA and reach higher resistance levels like 1.0900. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/30/eur-usd-forecast-euro-bulls-reappear-after-weak-us-data/
2024-10-30 07:59
Inflation in Australia eased to an over 3-year low in the third quarter. RBA rate cut bets fell to reflect a 24% likelihood of a cut in December. US consumer confidence rose more than expected. The AUD/USD price analysis supports a downtrend as easing price pressures in Australia put downward pressure on the Aussie. However, market participants pushed back bets for a rate cut due to high core and services inflation. Meanwhile, the dollar remained steady after a mixed bag of economic figures. Inflation in Australia eased to an over 3-year low in the third quarter mainly due to government subsidies on electricity. The CPI increased by 0.2%, missing forecasts of a 0.3% increase. This caused an initial drop in the Australian dollar. However, when traders had time to digest the report, it became clear that the main figures showed still-high inflation. Notably, the core CPI increased by 0.8%, above forecasts of 0.7%. Meanwhile, services inflation rose by 4.6% after a 4.5% increase in the previous quarter. The Reserve Bank of Australia pays close attention to these numbers. Therefore, policymakers might remain cautious about rate cuts. Meanwhile, market bets fell to reflect a 24% likelihood of a cut in December and a 44% chance of a cut in February next year. Market participants are only fully pricing the first move in April. On the other hand, the dollar remained firm after data revealed that consumer confidence rose more than expected. The CB consumer confidence rose to 108.7, well above estimates of 99.5. However, a separate report showed that job vacancies in the US fell to 7.44 million, missing forecasts of 7.98 million. The drop indicated a drop in demand for labor that solidified bets for a Fed rate cut in November. AUD/USD key events today US ADP nonfarm employment change US advance GDP q/q AUD/USD technical price analysis: Downtrend eyes 0.6501 support level On the technical side, the AUD/USD price is on a solid downtrend, with the price below the 30-SMA and the RSI near the oversold region. The price recently broke below the 0.6600 support level to make new lows in the downtrend. –Are you interested to learn more about forex signals? Check our detailed guide- Given the solid bearish bias, AUD/USD might soon reach the 0.6501 support level. Moreover, the downtrend will continue as long as the price stays below the SMA and the RSI trades in bearish territory below 50. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/30/aud-usd-price-analysis-cooling-inflation-weighs-on-aussie/
