2024-11-08 11:59

The risk-sensitive Australian dollar soared after Trump won the US election. The US Central Bank lowered borrowing costs by 25-bps. Trump’s presidency will likely lead to higher inflation due to his policies. The AUD/USD price analysis shows increased bullish enthusiasm due to a surge in risk appetite after Trump’s win. However, the price eased by Friday as market participants waited for China to announce new stimulus for its fragile economy. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The risk-sensitive Australian dollar soared after Trump won the US election. Trump’s policies are known to improve business conditions and boost inflation. As a result, his win brought back money into risky currencies and assets like equities. Elsewhere, market participants eagerly await the conclusion of a meeting in China that might result in more stimulus measures. Meanwhile, on Thursday, the US Central Bank lowered borrowing costs by 25-bps. Furthermore, the Fed struck a cautious tone regarding future rate cuts. However, markets still expect another rate cut in December. At the same time, AUD/USD rallied as the dollar retreated after the impact of the Trump win wore off. Trump’s presidency will likely lead to higher inflation due to his policies. The Republican president has proposed tax cuts and tariffs on imported goods, among other changes that will likely increase price pressure in the US. Therefore, the Fed has a difficult challenge ahead. If inflation spikes, policymakers might have to pause rate cuts and even consider hiking. Such an outcome would boost the dollar. At the same time, it will reduce the policy divergence between the Fed and the RBA. Notably, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates unchanged this week, with policymakers remaining cautious about inflation. Moreover, markets do not expect a rate cut in Australia until May next year. AUD/USD key events today Market participants do not expect any high-impact reports from Australia or the US. AUD/USD technical price analysis: Bulls assert dominance with a higher high On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has made a new high above the 0.6650 resistance level. At the same time, the price trades well above the 30-SMA, with the RSI above 50, suggesting a bullish trend. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- However, the uptrend has paused, allowing bears to prompt a pullback. If the price finds support near the 0.6650 level, it will bounce higher to make new highs. However, it might puncture this level to retest the 30-SMA before climbing. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/08/aud-usd-price-analysis-risk-appetite-surges-post-trump-win/

2024-11-08 09:18

The Bank of England cut rates by 25-bps. Markets expect two to three BoE rate cuts in 2025. The Federal Reserve also lowered borrowing costs by 25=bps. The GBP/USD outlook shows a pause in yesterday’s rally as traders lock in profits. The pound rose on Thursday after the Bank of England lowered borrowing costs and signalled higher inflation in the future due to the new government budget. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- As expected, the Bank of England cut rates by 25-bps on Thursday. However, traders focused on the message indicating that inflation might be higher than expected in the future. This shift in tone came after the government unveiled a new budget with higher borrowing and spending. Consequently, markets expect two to three rate cuts in 2025, compared to earlier expectations of at least four. This boosted sterling, leading to a rebound from lows it hit due to Trump’s win. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve also lowered borrowing costs by 25bps and delivered a cautious tone regarding future rate cuts. The new Trump administration comes with changes to fiscal policy that might change the inflation outlook. Notably, Trump has proposed tax cuts, tariffs on imported goods, and immigration laws that might increase inflation. If this is the case, the Fed might have to pause its rate cuts at some point. Consequently, the outlook for the dollar remains bright. Nevertheless, markets still expect another rate cut in December. Before this meeting, the US will release more data on employment and inflation that could shift this outlook. A robust labor market and higher-than-expected inflation could lead to a pause in December. GBP/USD key events today The pound will likely end the week quietly as no key events are coming from the US or the UK. GBP/USD technical outlook: Price settles in the 1.2850-1.3000 range On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has rebounded after finding support at the 1.2850 level. However, it now seems that the price has entered a period of consolidation, with support at 1.2850 and resistance at 1.3000. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Currently, bulls are in the lead since the price sits above the 30-SMA, with the RSI above 50. However, they have failed to breach the range resistance, leading to a pullback. If the price breaks below the SMA, it will continue consolidating. On the other hand, if it breaks above, the price might start a bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/08/gbp-usd-outlook-pound-eases-as-traders-lock-in-profits/

2024-11-07 11:26

The dollar had a strong bullish day on Wednesday after Trump won the election. Market participants prepare for a rate cut during the FOMC policy meeting. The US reported an addition of 12.000 jobs in October. The EUR/USD outlook shows a rebound in the euro after reaching new lows due to Wednesday’s Trump trade. Market participants paused the recent move ahead of the FOMC policy meeting, where the Fed will likely lower borrowing costs. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The dollar had a strong bullish day on Wednesday after Trump won the election to become the US president again. The Trump trade resumed enthusiastically as markets looked forward to tax cuts and tariffs on imported goods. At the same time, a Trump presidency will likely complicate the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle. After the results, traders lowered the likelihood of a rate cut in December from 77% to 67%. Meanwhile, market participants are preparing for a rate cut during the FOMC policy meeting later today. Although the US central bank will likely cut rates, it will be by a smaller size than traders had expected a few weeks ago. The Fed started its rate-cutting cycle with a super-sized rate cut, which increased expectations of another such move in November. However, economic resilience has changed this outlook. Nevertheless, the latest jobs report revealed unexpected weakness in the labor market that might scare policymakers. Economists had expected slower job growth due to recent hurricanes. However, an addition of 12.000 jobs was far below estimates. A dovish tone during the meeting will increase the likelihood of a rate cut in December. On the other hand, if policymakers demonstrate caution, rate-cut bets will fall, further boosting the greenback. EUR/USD key events today Unemployment Claims Federal Funds Rate FOMC Statement FOMC Press Conference EUR/USD technical outlook: Bears take charge after evening star pattern On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has paused its decline near the 1.0700 key psychological level. It trades far below the 30-SMA, showing bears are in the lead. At the same time, the RSI trades near the oversold region, suggesting strong bearish momentum. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Initially, bulls had reversed the trend by breaching the 30-SMA and making higher highs and lows. However, they failed to sustain a move beyond the 1.0900 resistance. Here, bears took charge with the price making a strong evening star pattern that broke below the SMA. Given the solid bearish bias, the downtrend might soon resume with a break below 1.0700. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/07/eur-usd-outlook-euro-finds-footing-after-trump-trade-decline/

2024-11-07 08:39

Trump won the US presidential election. The Federal Reserve will likely cut rates by 25-bps later today. The likelihood of a December Fed rate cut fell from 77% to 67%. The USD/JPY forecast shows a slight pullback amid a strong bullish surge as the focus shifts from Trump’s win to the upcoming FOMC policy meeting. The greenback soared to new heights after Donald Trump won the election. Meanwhile, the yen collapsed, leading to warnings from Japan against sharp declines. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The US presidential election on Wednesday ended with the Republican candidate Donald Trump winning against Kamala Harris. This is the second time Trump will be president. Moreover, he has proposed tax cuts and tariffs on imported goods to boost local businesses and drive inflation higher. Consequently, the dollar and Treasury yields rallied after the election results. However, the market focus returned to the upcoming FOMC policy meeting after the election. The Federal Reserve will likely cut rates by 25-bps later today and give clues on future moves. Market participants are almost fully pricing this rate cut. However, there is uncertainty about the December meeting. At first, policymakers had assumed a more hawkish tone, increasing the likelihood of a pause in December. The US economy has shown unexpected resilience, shifting the outlook for rate cuts to a more gradual one. However, the last employment report raised fears of some deterioration in the labor market. The US economy added only 12,000 jobs in October, partly due to hurricane disruptions. Nevertheless, the report could lead to a more dovish tone during the meeting. Meanwhile, December rate cut expectations eased slightly after Trump’s win. The likelihood of a cut fell from 77% to 67%. USD/JPY key events today Unemployment Claims FOMC policy meeting USD/JPY technical forecast: Price retests broken support On the technical side, the USD/JPY price broke above and retested the 153.75 key level. Initially, the price paused to trade between the 151.74 support and the 153.75 resistance levels. However, bullish momentum surged and ended the period of consolidation. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Furthermore, it pushed the price well above the 30-SMA with the RSI near the overbought region. Moreover, the price made a higher high, confirming a continuation of the previous bullish trend. If the 153.75 level holds firm as support, the price will target the 155.00 level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/07/usd-jpy-forecast-rally-pauses-as-investors-await-fed-rate-cut/

2024-11-06 12:43

Voting reveals that Trump will be the next US president. Data on Friday revealed a poor performance in the US labor market. The Bank of England will likely cut rates by 25-bps on Thursday. The GBP/USD forecast turned to the downside after news outlets reported that Republican candidate Donald Trump won the election. Meanwhile, market participants prepared for a rate cut at the Bank of England policy meeting. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Voting in the US on Wednesday revealed that Trump was in the lead and would likely become the next president. After weeks of speculation, market participants are more convinced that Trump’s policies will increase inflation. Therefore, the Fed might have a difficult time finishing its rate-cutting cycle. After the election, the market focus will return to the state of the US economy and the FOMC policy meeting. Data on Friday revealed a poor performance in the US labor market. The US economy added just 12,000 new jobs in October, well below estimates of 106,000 additional jobs. However, the impact on the dollar was minimal because the unemployment rate remained steady. At the same time, experts noted that the slow job growth was due to disruptions caused by hurricanes. Nevertheless, the report might shape the tone during the FOMC policy meeting. Before the data, policymakers had assumed a more hawkish tone, with some expecting the central bank to pause in December. If this tone remains, the dollar will rise. On the other hand, if the Fed signals another rate cut this year, the greenback will collapse. Meanwhile, the Bank of England will likely cut rates by 25-bps on Thursday. This outlook follows recent figures showing inflation at 1.7%, below the central bank’s targets. However, most economists believe this might be the last rate cut for the year. GBP/USD key events today Market participants will keep digesting the US election results as there are no other high-impact reports. GBP/USD technical forecast: Bulls give up control above 1.3000 On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has collapsed after failing to sustain a move above the 1.3000 key psychological level. Bulls had attempted to take charge. However, sentiment suddenly shifted when the price made a bearish engulfing pattern. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- A break below the 22-SMA has allowed bears to retest the 1.2850 support level. If bears maintain enthusiasm and the RSI stays below 50, the price will make a new low below 1.2850, continuing the previous downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/06/gbp-usd-forecast-pound-collapses-as-trump-secures-victory/

2024-11-06 11:40

It is clear that Trump will be the next president. Economists forecast slower job growth in Canada. The market focus is shifting to the FOMC policy meeting. The USD/CAD price analysis indicates a sudden surge in bullish momentum as Trump takes the lead in the US presidential election. Some news outlets have already shown that Trump won the election, which has boosted the dollar. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar was vulnerable against the dollar ahead of domestic employment figures. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- After weeks of speculation, the results are finally out, and it is more apparent that Trump will be the next president. Trump has proposed tariff and tax changes that will likely be inflationary. Consequently, the Fed might have to rethink its policy outlook to a less dovish. This, in turn, will boost treasury yields and the dollar. At the same time, higher tariffs on imported goods will have a significant impact on the Canadian dollar. Canada’s economy exports nearly 75% of its goods to the US market. Therefore, tariffs would affect exports and hurt the economy. Meanwhile, market participants expect employment figures from Canada on Friday. Forecasts show slower job growth, with the economy likely adding 27,900 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate might increase from 6.5% to 6.6%. Weaker-than-expected figures might push the Bank of Canada to implement another massive rate cut. On the other hand, if the economy adds more jobs than expected, the Canadian dollar will climb. Market focus is slowly shifting from the US presidential election to the FOMC policy meeting. The US Central Bank will meet on Thursday and likely cut rates by 25-bps. However, traders will pay closer attention to the messaging on future rate cuts. USD/CAD key events today Market participants will absorb the outcome of the US election as there won’t be any other key events. USD/CAD technical price analysis: Bears struggle to keep control On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has bounced higher after finding support at the 1.3825 key level. The price made a bullish engulfing candle, indicating a surge in bullish momentum. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- However, before this, the price had broken out of its bullish wedge pattern. The break indicated a change in control from bulls to bears. However, if they fail to keep the price below the 22-SMA, it might revisit the 1.3951 resistance level. A break above would signal a continuation of the bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/06/usd-cad-price-analysis-dollar-rebounds-as-trump-leads/