2025-07-03 10:29
The GBP/USD outlook suggests growing concerns about the UK’s fiscal health. The UK government made a U-turn on welfare reforms. Data in the previous session revealed that the US private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June. The GBP/USD outlook suggests growing concerns about the UK’s fiscal health, which have weighed on the pound. At the same time, market participants are worried that the government might replace the current finance minister. However, dollar weakness allowed the currency to recover on Thursday. British bonds collapsed on Wednesday, dragging the pound lower. The move came after the government made a U-turn on welfare reforms, which had previously been part of the current budget. The move put a lot of pressure on the finance minister, Rachel Reeves. Moreover, it stoked worries about a likely replacement that would create uncertainty. However, the pound regained its footing on Thursday as the dollar weakened ahead of the nonfarm payrolls report. Data in the previous session revealed that the private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June. Meanwhile, estimates had shown an addition of 99,000 jobs. The downbeat report increased worries about a slowdown in the labor market. As a result, the chances of a July Fed rate cut rose from 20% to 25%. If the nonfarm payrolls are also poor, rate cut expectations will increase further, pushing the dollar lower. GBP/USD key events today Average Hourly Earnings m/m Non-Farm Employment Change Unemployment Rate ISM Services PMI GBP/USD technical outlook: Bears pause for breath at the 1.3601 level On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken below the 30-SMA, indicating a shift in sentiment. The move followed a bearish divergence in the RSI, indicating weakness in the previous rally. Although bulls broke above the 1.3750 resistance, they failed to sustain a move higher. As a result, bears took charge by sending it below the SMA. However, the sharp decline paused at the 1.3601 key support and resistance level. As a result, the price has pulled back and is aiming for the 30-SMA. If the SMA holds firm, GBP/USD might drop below the 1.3601 support level. Such a move would form a lower low, confirming a new downtrend. Moreover, it would pave the way for bears to reach the 1.3400 support level. On the other hand, if the SMA gives way, the price will likely retest the 1.3750 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/03/gbp-usd-outlook-ticking-down-amid-uk-fiscal-concerns-nfp/
2025-07-03 09:05
The USD/JPY forecast shows a rebound as the dollar gains on trade optimism. The US economy lost 33,000 private jobs in June. Economists expect 120,000 new US jobs, a slowdown from the previous month. The USD/JPY forecast shows a rebound as the dollar gains on trade optimism. However, downbeat employment figures in the previous session led to an increase in Fed rate cut expectations. Market participants are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report. The dollar strengthened on Thursday after news of a trade deal between the US and Vietnam. The news raised hopes of more deals before the July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs. The progress in trade talks has been slow, and there are concerns that tariffs will increase again soon. Therefore, any new deal boosts market sentiment. However, the dollar remains under pressure after data in the previous session revealed weak private employment. The economy lost 33,000 private jobs in June. Meanwhile, economists had expected 99,000 new jobs. The report raised concerns about the state of the labor market. At the same time, it increased the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in July. All eyes are now on the nonfarm payrolls. Economists expect 120,000 new jobs, a slowdown from the previous month. Moreover, unemployment might increase from 4.2% to 4.3%. Softer-than-expected figures will weigh on the dollar by adding pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs. USD/JPY key events today US average hourly earnings m/m US nonfarm employment change US unemployment rate US ISM services PMI USD/JPY technical forecast: Price retests trendline after recent break On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken below its bullish trendline to make a lower low. The move has strengthened the bearish bias. However, the price has pulled back to retest the recently broken trendline and the 30-SMA. However, the price remains below the SMA, with the RSI under 50, indicating that bears are still in the lead. However, this might change. The current resistance zone must hold firm to allow the price to bounce lower and confirm the breakout. If this happens, the USD/JPY pair will likely drop to retest the 142.55 support level. On the other hand, if bulls are stronger, the price will likely break above the resistance zone. Still, to confirm a new bullish move, the price would need to break above the 145.00 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/03/usd-jpy-forecast-dollar-rebounds-after-us-vietnam-trade-deal/
2025-07-02 10:44
The USD/CAD price analysis shows stronger bullish sentiment as the dollar recovers. The JOLTS report revealed that job openings in the US rose to 7.77 million. Economists expect slower US job growth in June and for the unemployment rate to jump from 4.2% to 4.3%. The USD/CAD price analysis shows stronger bullish sentiment as the dollar recovers on signs of strength in the US labor market. However, market participants are still awaiting the crucial monthly employment report for more clues on the outlook for Fed rate cuts. Data on Tuesday revealed that demand for labor in the US remains resilient. Economists had expected job vacancies to drop. However, the JOLTS report revealed that job openings rose to 7.77 million. The surprise figure eased worries about the state of the labor market amid the recent slowdown. Trump’s tariffs have had a negative impact on the economy, which has piled pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs. Economists expect slower job growth in June and for the unemployment rate to jump from 4.2% to 4.3%. A softer-than-expected report will increase rate cut expectations, weighing on the dollar. Moreover, Powell was more dovish in his recent speeches, saying the Fed would cut rates if inflation does not spike. He also failed to rule out the possibility of a rate cut at the next meeting. Meanwhile, experts like Goldman Sachs believe the central bank could deliver three rate cuts this year. Therefore, the downside potential for USD/CAD remains. USD/CAD key events today ADP Non-Farm Employment Change USD/CAD technical price analysis: Bulls challenge the downtrend at the 30-SMA On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has pulled back to retest the 30-SMA after making a new low in the downtrend. It trades slightly below the SMA, with the RSI under 50, suggesting bears are still in the lead. The price briefly broke below the 1.3625 support level to make a lower low. However, it pulled back and is now challenging the 30-SMA. A break above the SMA line will signal a bullish sentiment shift. However, for bulls to take charge, they must also break above the 1.3700 key level and start making higher highs and lows. On the other hand, if bears remain in the lead, the price will eventually bounce lower. The next target is at the 1.3550 support level. A break below this level would solidify the bearish bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/02/usd-cad-price-analysis-us-job-vacancies-lift-dollar/
2025-07-02 09:17
The EUR/USD forecast indicates a rebound in the dollar after upbeat employment figures. Job vacancies in the US exceeded the estimated number. Powell did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut at the next meeting. The EUR/USD forecast indicates a rebound in the dollar after upbeat employment figures in the previous session. However, a growing policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB has kept the pair bullish. The Fed is becoming increasingly dovish and is more inclined to cut interest rates. On the other hand, the ECB seems comfortable with pausing. Data released on Tuesday revealed that job vacancies in the US exceeded the estimated number. The JOLTS job openings rose to 7.77 million, compared to the forecast of a drop to 7.32 million. More vacancies are a sign that demand for labor is strong. The report eased worries of a rapid slowdown in the labor market. However, market participants are more eager to see the results of the nonfarm payrolls report for more clues on Fed policy. Meanwhile, recent speeches from Powell have revealed a more dovish tone. On Tuesday, the Fed Chair did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut at the next meeting. The slowdown in the economy has gradually increased pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates. On the other hand, ECB’s Madis Muller said on Tuesday that the central bank can afford to pause for now. Inflation in the Eurozone has reached the 2% target, and growth is rebounding. EUR/USD key events today ADP Non-Farm Employment Change EUR/USD technical forecast: RSI divergence signals likely pullback On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has paused near the 1.1800 key psychological level after making new highs in the bullish trend. The price trades above the 30-SMA, and the RSI is above 50, suggesting a bullish bias. The price has maintained a bullish trajectory, making higher highs and lows despite chopping through the 30-SMA. Nevertheless, the price has remained above a bullish trendline. The most recent swing came from the trendline, broke above the 1.1600 key level, and reached the 1.1800 resistance. However, at the new high, the price has shown some weakness. The RSI has made a bearish divergence. If this plays out, the price will likely drop below the 30-SMA to retest the 1.1600 level or the bullish trendline. Otherwise, bulls will break above 1.1800 to make new highs. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/02/eur-usd-forecast-dollar-rebounds-on-strong-jobs-data/
2025-07-01 10:23
The USD/JPY price analysis indicates rising demand for the safe-haven yen. Uncertainty over trade deals dampened risk appetite. Goldman Sachs believes the Fed will deliver three 25-bps rate cuts this year. The USD/JPY price analysis indicates rising demand for the safe-haven yen amid fiscal and trade uncertainty. At the same time, the dollar weakened due to increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts this year. The yen surged on Tuesday as fiscal concerns in the US prompted traders to seek safety. Market participants are concerned about Trump’s huge tax-cut and spending Bill. If it passes, it will add to the country’s debt burden. At the same time, uncertainty over trade deals dampened risk appetite. As a deadline for reciprocal tariffs approaches, most countries have yet to sign deals with the US. On Monday, Trump complained that Japan had refused to import rice from the US, despite having a shortage. Moreover, he warned of letters announcing high tariffs to partners who would not agree to the US’s trading conditions. Elsewhere, the dollar was fragile as markets increasingly bet on Fed rate cuts. The impact of tariffs on the US economy so far has been muted. However, the labor market has slowed down significantly. As a result, Goldman Sachs believes the Fed will deliver three 25-bps rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, economists expect further softness in the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report. This could put more pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates. USD/JPY key events today BOJ Governor Ueda Speaks Fed Chair Powell Speaks ISM Manufacturing PMI JOLTS Job Openings USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bears eye 142.55 after trendline breakout On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has made a milestone move, breaking below its shallow bullish trendline. At the same time, the price trades well below the 30-SMA. Meanwhile, the RSI is approaching the oversold region, indicating a strong bearish bias. The downtrend started after a sharp reversal at the 148.02 key level. Bears pushed the price below the 30-SMA. Moreover, the price started making lower highs and lows, respecting the SMA as resistance. The recent trendline breakout has solidified the bearish bias, with the next target at the 142.55 support level. After such a steep decline, USD/JPY might pause at 142.55. However, the bearish bias will remain as long as the price stays below the SMA. A break below 142.55 would increase the downside potential. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/01/usd-jpy-price-analysis-rising-fiscal-and-trade-fears-boost-yen/
2025-07-01 08:25
The GBP/USD outlook suggests a rally in the pound following a strong close to Q2. A deal to lower US tariffs on certain UK industrial items took effect on Monday. The dollar remained weak ahead of US employment figures. The GBP/USD outlook suggests a rally in the pound following a strong finish to the second quarter of the year. Sterling gained as the US dollar remained fragile ahead of the crucial US nonfarm payrolls report. At the same time, the dollar was weak due to an increase in bets for a September Fed rate cut. The pound had a solid quarterly finish, gaining about 6% against the dollar. The rally came due to trade optimism after the UK became the first country to sign a deal with the US. As a result, UK assets became the safest bet at a time of trade uncertainty. On Tuesday, the pound resumed its two-week rally. Trade optimism remains a significant catalyst for the currency. In the previous session, a deal to lower US tariffs on certain UK industrial items took effect. At the same time, data revealed that the UK economy grew by 0.7% in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the dollar remained weak ahead of US employment figures that could show further weakness in the labor market. Moreover, trade optimism has boosted bets for a September Fed rate cut. If the US can sign more trade deals, there will be less economic and inflation uncertainty. This would allow the Fed to lower borrowing costs. GBP/USD key events today BoE Governor Bailey Speaks Fed Chair Powell Speaks ISM Manufacturing PMI JOLTS Job Openings GBP/USD technical outlook: Bulls gear up for a new high On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has resumed its rally and is retesting the 1.3750 key resistance level. The bullish bias is strong with the price above the 30-SMA and the RSI near the overbought region. The trend changed suddenly when bullish momentum surged near the 1.3400 key support level. Bulls made a big-bodied candle that broke above the SMA, indicating a shift in sentiment. Following that, momentum remained strong, pushing the price above the key 1.3601 resistance level. Furthermore, the price remained well above the SMA, showing a steep rally until it got to the 1.3750 resistance level. The pause here was longer. However, bulls have regained momentum and might soon break above to reach the 1.3800 key psychological level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/01/gbp-usd-outlook-pound-surges-as-q2-wraps-up-on-a-high-note/
