2023-11-22 11:56

The EUR/USD pair seems determined to hit new lows as the dollar gains ahead of FOMC. The lower median line is seen as a potential target. The US data could have an impact later today. The EUR/USD price went down, trading at 1.0899 at press time, way lower than yesterday’s highest point of 1.0963. The downtick move is attributed to the stronger US dollar. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- The Greenback got stronger after Canada’s inflation numbers came out. The CPI and Core CPI showed higher inflation than last month’s reading. Even though US Existing Home Sales were not as good as expected, the US dollar is still strong in the wake of FOMC Meeting Minutes. The FED said they’re keeping the same monetary policy and won’t change the interest rates. Today, US data could drive the market. The Unemployment Claims may drop from 231K to 226K last week. Also, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment could go up from 60.4 to 61.1 points. Also, Durable Goods Orders might show a 3.2% drop after growing by 4.6% last time. Core Durable Goods Orders might show a 0.2% growth. On the other hand, the Eurozone will release the Consumer Confidence indicator, which might stay at -18 points. The currency pair failed to retest the ascending pitchfork’s upper median line (uml), signaling exhausted buyers. The pair has now dropped below the median line (ml), representing dynamic support. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- After its sell-off, the price could retest the median line (ml) before extending its sell-off. The downside obstacle turned into an upside obstacle, so false breakouts may result in a downside continuation. The lower median line (lml) and the weekly pivot point of 1.0830 represent key targets if the rate continues to drop. https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-price-slips-below-1-09-as-market-awaits-fomc/

2023-11-22 10:02

The Fed’s minutes failed to change expectations of looming rate cuts. Bank of England Governor Bailey highlighted the risks of sustained inflation growth. Markets are pricing in approximately 70 basis points of BoE rate cuts by the end of next year. On Wednesday, the GBP/USD forecast remained bullish, affirming its strength as the pound sustained its position near a 10-week high against the dollar. Moreover, the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting minutes did little to change expectations that the rate-hike cycle had ended. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Fed officials emphasized they would only consider raising interest rates if progress in controlling inflation stalled. On Tuesday, the British pound reached a 10-week high against a weakened U.S. dollar. Moreover, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated that the central bank’s stance on interest rates would not change. Furthermore, Bailey expressed confidence in inflation returning to the central bank’s 2% target. However, he highlighted the risks of sustained high price growth, stating that the risks leaned towards the upside. Additionally, Catherine Mann, a more hawkish member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, advocated further tightening to ensure a return to the inflation target. Mann was in the minority when she voted for a 25-basis-point increase in the Bank Rate in November. Money market traders believe that UK interest rates have peaked. As such, markets are pricing in approximately 70 basis points of rate cuts by the end of next year. Consequently, it implies nearly three rate cuts by the end of 2024. Last week, markets had estimated around 60 basis points of cuts by the end of next year. Meanwhile, investors also paid attention to Wednesday’s Autumn Statement. Here, British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt will announce fiscal policy changes to boost the sluggish economy. GBP/USD key events today The UK Autumn Forecast Statement US initial jobless claims US core durable goods orders. GBP/USD technical forecast: Weakening bulls The pound made a new high above the 1.2501 key level. However, the move higher made small-bodied candles, a sign of weakness. This weakness is also shown by the RSI, which has made a bearish divergence. Although the price increased, the RSI made a lower high, indicating weaker momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- Still, the bias is bullish because the price is above the 30-SMA and the RSI above 50. Bulls must regain momentum for this bullish bias to continue. Otherwise, bears might take over with a break below the 30-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-forecast-pound-retains-bid-tone-at-10-week-top/

2023-11-22 08:27

Canada’s annual inflation rate dropped more than anticipated to 3.1%. Money markets have almost completely factored in a BoC rate cut by April. Speculators have boosted their bearish bets on the Canadian dollar. Wednesday’s USD/CAD price analysis painted a bullish picture, influenced by data on Tuesday revealing a decrease in Canada’s inflation. Moreover, investors were absorbing minutes from the recent Federal Reserve meeting. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- In October, Canada’s annual inflation rate dropped more than anticipated to 3.1%. Meanwhile, core inflation measures reached their lowest points in approximately two years. Simon Harvey from Monex Europe and Monex Canada stated, “This aligns with our belief that the BoC, having led the Fed in the hiking cycle, will once again lead in the 2024 easing cycle, with a probable cut as early as April.” Furthermore, recent weeks have seen markets gradually align with this perspective. Consequently, the Canadian dollar has lagged behind the G10 rally caused by the weaker dollar. Additionally, money markets have almost completely factored in a BoC rate cut by April and anticipate three cuts next year. The upcoming BoC rate decision will be on December 6. Moreover, it will come after the release of third-quarter GDP data, anticipated to reveal a slight contraction in the Canadian economy. Elsewhere, data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that speculators have increased their bearish bets on the Canadian dollar to the highest level since June 2017. Meanwhile, the US dollar recovered from recent declines against a basket of major currencies. This recovery came as Federal Reserve officials, in their last meeting, agreed to adopt a cautious approach to future rate hikes. USD/CAD key events today US core durable goods orders US initial jobless claims US crude oil inventories USD/CAD technical price analysis: Bulls struggle against 30-SMA resistance On the charts, the USD/CAD price is facing the 30-SMA resistance and has struggled to break above for some time. Bears have held control since the price broke below the SMA and the 1.3750 key level. However, they have failed to make lower lows as bulls try to regain control. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- The price has retested the 30-SMA several times and might eventually break above. Still, bulls must also break above 1.3750 to confirm a bullish takeover. However, at the moment, bears are still ahead, and the RSI supports bearish momentum below 50. If bears hold control, the price will retest the 1.3650 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-cad-price-analysis-loonie-loses-strength-as-inflation-dips/

2023-11-21 14:28

XAU/USD remains bullish despite the current retreat. Staying near the 1,993 may announce an imminent breakout. A new lower low activates a deeper drop. Gold price dropped a bit today, dropping from its highest point of 1,994 to 1,988. After a recent increase, it was kind of expected. But don’t count gold out just yet – the pressure for it to go up is still strong because the US dollar is not doing so well. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Today, what’s happening worldwide could change gold’s price. A report on the Canadian Consumer Price Index is coming up, and it might show a 0.1% increase, which is better than the 0.1% drop in the last report. They’re also releasing data on Core CPI, Common CPI, Trimmed CPI, and Median CPI. But the big deal is the FOMC Meeting Minutes. This could shake things up. The US dollar underwent some changes after the US inflation numbers came out. If the meeting minutes sound tough, it could strengthen the US dollar and make gold prices drop. But if the report is more laid-back, gold prices might go up again. Tomorrow, more stuff could move gold’s price – like the US Unemployment Claim, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Durable Goods Orders, and Core Durable Goods Orders. Keep an eye out for those! Gold price technical analysis: Selling territory Looking at the hourly chart, the rate hit a high of 1,993 but couldn’t quite stay there, showing some false breakouts. Now, it’s heading down. It’s trying to challenge the upper median line (uml). When it couldn’t reach and test the 150% Fibonacci line, it hinted that the buyers might be getting tired. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- To really see more drops, it has to settle below that upper median line (uml) and make a new lower low. If it hangs around 1,993, we might be on the brink of a breakout and things might keep going in the same direction. If it can break out of the supply zone, that’s a good sign for more growth. The R1 (2,005) is like a target that could be reached if things keep going up. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gold-price-struggling-to-find-acceptance-above-2000/

2023-11-21 09:55

China’s upward guidance of the yuan contributed to a weaker dollar. The Central Bank of China set the midpoint of the yuan’s trading band at its strongest level since Aug. 7. Investors have even begun pricing in rate cuts as early as March. In the realm of AUD/USD price analysis, Tuesday witnessed a commendable surge in the Australian dollar, driven by the announcement of China’s currency adjustment. This noteworthy event injected a distinctly bullish sentiment into the ongoing market evaluation of AUD/USD. At the same time, China’s upward guidance of the yuan contributed to a weaker dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve’s minutes. However, analysts caution that the downward momentum of the dollar may be limited. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- The Central Bank of China set the midpoint of the yuan’s trading band at its strongest level since Aug. 7. As a result, the yuan reached an almost four-month high of 7.1301 against the dollar. At the same time, the Australian dollar climbed 0.4%, reaching a three-month high. National Australia Bank strategist Rodrigo Catril in Sydney noted that China’s strong currency fixing and a Bloomberg News report on support for the property sector boosted market sentiment. Catril said, “It’s encouraging the market to think: ‘OK, cool, we’ve seen the worst CNY weakness.’ Moreover, they’re telling us they want dollar/CNH lower.” According to Bloomberg News, Chinese regulators are compiling a list of 50 developers eligible for funding. Meanwhile, minutes from Australia’s November policy meeting revealed the central bank’s concern that inflation expectations could become entrenched if it did not raise interest rates. Elsewhere, investor attention will focus on the Federal Reserve’s last meeting minutes to assess the direction of interest rates. Traders have nearly fully priced in the likelihood of the Fed maintaining unchanged interest rates in December. Furthermore, some have even begun pricing in rate cuts as early as March. AUD/USD key events today Fed meeting minutes The existing home sales report from the US AUD/USD technical price analysis: Bearish divergence Aussie is ascending toward the 0.6600 resistance level. Bulls made progress when the price broke above the strong 0.6525 resistance level. However, the RSI shows weaker bullish momentum even as the price climbs. There is a bearish divergence that indicates exhaustion in the bullish move. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- Therefore, bulls might need to pause and retest the 0.6525 key level before the uptrend continues. However, the uptrend will only continue if the price holds above the 30-SMA and the RSI stays above 50. https://www.forexcrunch.com/aud-usd-price-analysis-chinas-currency-adjustment-lifts-aussie/

2023-11-21 08:33

China’s upward guidance of the yuan weighed on the dollar. The yen strengthened over 0.5%, reaching its highest point in seven weeks. Investors are anticipating the release of Fed minutes. On Tuesday, the USD/JPY outlook was bearish, driven by the dollar’s decline to new lows against the yen. This movement came due to China’s upward guidance of the yuan, contributing to a more widespread weakness in the dollar’s value. As such, the yen strengthened over 0.5%, reaching its highest point in seven weeks at 147.5 per dollar. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, a Bloomberg News report on upcoming support for the property sector in China boosted risk appetite, hurting the dollar. Meanwhile, US yields declined amid expectations that US interest rates have peaked. Markets have nearly ruled out the risk of further US rate hikes in December or the next year. On a different note, investors are anticipating the release of Fed minutes at 1900 GMT. The yen has shown signs of a turnaround. After decades of falling prices, global inflationary pressures gradually impact Japan’s economy. Consequently, investors are reassessing their Japan-related investments as the Bank of Japan considers a significant policy shift. Friday’s inflation data will likely reveal an acceleration in core consumer prices in October in Japan. Mizuho Bank’s head of economics, Vishnu Varathan, emphasized the need for a reality check on the Fed’s hawkish bias. He stated that it is not independent of yield movements. Furthermore, he noted the potential for a self-checking mechanism if yields fall too much, suggesting that the dollar’s decline might stop. Finally, Varathan cautioned against premature declarations until the December Fed meeting. Today’s minutes could be significant if language changes concerning the bond market. USD/JPY key events today Existing US home sales FOMC meeting minutes USD/JPY technical outlook: Prices tumble as bearish momentum strengthens On the charts, the USD/JPY price is on a downward spiral, with the price leaping over support levels. The bearish trend started when the price crossed below the 30-SMA. Moreover, bears confirmed the new direction when the price retested and respected the 30-SMA resistance. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- Since then, the price has fallen and crossed below key support levels. Recently, bears broke below the 148.00 support level. However, with the RSI in the oversold region, the price might finally pause for a retracement. Still, before that, we could see it fall to the 147.01 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-outlook-chinas-yuan-guidance-weakens-the-dollar/