2023-11-30 10:28
The dollar rebounded from a three-month low. Data indicating faster-than-expected growth in the US economy. The BoC revealed skepticism about the benefits of a potential digital currency. As Thursday unfolded, the USD/CAD outlook took on a bullish tone, driven by a dollar rebound from a three-month low. However, the dollar was poised to mark its most substantial monthly decline in a year. Investors increased bets that the Fed would refrain from further rate hikes. Moreover, they awaited a crucial inflation report later in the day. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- Notably, the dollar fell by 3.7% in November amid growing expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in the first half of 2024. However, the dollar recovered some losses on Wednesday following upbeat data on growth in the US economy. Attention will be paid on Friday when Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak. This will follow remarks by Fed Governor Christopher Waller flagging a possible rate cut in the coming months. However, before that, investors will focus on the critical Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index. US futures markets are currently pricing over 100 basis points of rate cuts next year, starting in May. Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada (BoC) revealed on Wednesday that most financial institutions expressed skepticism about the benefits of a potential digital currency. Like many other countries, Canada is exploring a digital version of its currency. This move prevents digital payments from being left solely to the private sector. Notably, the COVID-19 pandemic has reduced the use of cash. As part of this initiative, the BoC consulted civil society groups, focus groups, financial institutions, and the general public to assess support and the viability of a digital Canadian dollar. USD/CAD key events today US core PCE price index report US pending home sales report US unemployment claims Canadian GDP USD/CAD technical outlook: Bulls resurface after the 1.3550 support level The price has recovered on the charts after finding support at the 1.3550 support level. However, the bias remains bearish since the rebound is below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI indicates strong bearish momentum as it trades below 50. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Bulls are heading for the 30-SMA resistance, which has stopped them many times in the downtrend. Therefore, the price will likely reverse at the SMA, allowing bears to continue the downtrend. Still, there is a chance bulls will break above the SMA and the 1.3650 level to reverse the trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/11/30/usd-cad-outlook-finding-bottom-at-3-month-lows/
2023-11-29 12:32
The GBP/USD pair maintains a bullish bias as long as it stays above the median line. It could only test and retest the support levels before turning to the upside. The US economic data should move the rate. The GBP/USD price posted a fresh top on Wednesday at 1.2733. However, the pair couldn’t sustain the gains, falling to 1.2682 at the time of writing. The Dollar Index turned to the upside after its strong drop. A meaningful recovery in the greenback may weigh down the sterling. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- The currency pair reached new highs after some dovish remarks from the FOMC members in the last session. The USD ignored the US CB Consumer Confidence, which came in at 102.0 points versus the expected 101.0 points, compared to the revised 99.1 points in the previous reporting period. Today, the United Kingdom M4 Money Supply and Mortgage Approvals came in better than expected, while Net Lending to Individuals matched expectations. Later, the US data should drive the price. The Prelim GDP is expected to report a 5.0% growth compared to the 4.9% growth in the previous reporting period. The Prelim GDP Price Index may announce a 3.5% growth, while the Goods Trade Balance could increase from -86.8B to -86.4 B. Also, the BoE Gov Bailey Speaks could have an impact. Technically, the GBP/USD price found resistance at the weekly R2 of 1.2720, turning to the downside. It could approach the weekly R1 (1.2660), a static support. The median line (ml) represents a dynamic support. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The trend is still bullish as the price is still above the key level. The GBP/USD pair could come back down, trying to accumulate more bullish energy before developing a new bullish momentum. Only dropping and stabilizing below the median line (ml) may result in a significant drop. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/11/29/gbp-usd-price-stalls-as-buyers-fear-us-prelim-gdp-data/
2023-11-29 06:49
Fed’s Waller suggested the possibility of a rate cut in the coming months. The dollar dropped over 0.5% to 146.675 yen, marking its weakest point in over two months. A key measure of Japan’s inflation trend accelerated to 2.2% in October. The USD/JPY forecast showed a bearish bias entering midweek as the dollar fell to its lowest point over three months. Notably, the decline came after Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a historically hawkish and influential figure at the central bank, suggested on Tuesday the possibility of a rate cut in the coming months. Consequently, this fueled market expectations that US interest rates have peaked. As a result, the dollar dropped over 0.5% to 146.675 yen, marking its weakest point in over two months. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, noted Waller’s shift from a relatively hawkish stance to a more dovish one. Moreover, the change signaled a potential consensus among board members that rates may have peaked. Therefore, rate cuts could start next year. Notably, current market pricing indicates a 40% chance of the Fed starting monetary policy easing as early as next March. It is up from roughly 22% the previous day. Elsewhere, data on Tuesday revealed a key measure of Japan’s inflation trend accelerating to 2.2% in October, a new record high. It signals broadening price pressure and strengthens the case for the central bank to reduce its monetary stimulus. At the upcoming policy-setting meeting on Dec. 18-19, policymakers will consider this data, among other factors. Notably, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) remains a global dovish outlier, maintaining an ultra-loose policy. Meanwhile, other major central banks have aggressively raised interest rates to combat inflation. USD/JPY key events today US GDP for Q3 USD/JPY technical forecast: Price in freefall following resistance setback On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has collapsed after failing to break above the 149.75 resistance level. Initially, the bulls tried taking control by pushing the price above the 30-SMA. However, bears were waiting to resume the downtrend at the 149.75 level. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The bearish bias is strong, with the price far below the 30-SMA and the RSI in the oversold region. Moreover, the price broke below the 147.51 level to make a lower low. Consequently, the downtrend will likely continue, with bears targeting the next support level at 146.50. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/11/29/usd-jpy-forecast-dollar-hits-3-month-low-on-dovish-fed/
2023-11-29 05:21
There was a drop in Australia’s inflation in October. The Aussie benefited from a weakening greenback. Financial markets anticipate the RBA to maintain current rates in December. In Wednesday’s AUD/USD price analysis, we find the Australian dollar showcasing resilience, surging to a four-month high despite a recent dip in Australia’s inflation in October. This decline in inflation is primarily attributed to lower goods prices. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- Notably, the Aussie benefited from a weakening greenback, which fell to an over three-month low. Speculation that the US Federal Reserve might begin rate cuts early next year is growing. Meanwhile, Australia’s inflation figures reinforce the argument for the RBA to hold rates next week. The monthly consumer price index in October increased at an annual rate of 4.9%, a slowdown from September’s 5.6%. Moreover, it was below the market’s 5.2% forecast. Furthermore, the CPI experienced a 0.3% decline in October alone, primarily due to decreased petrol prices, rent, and holiday travel. At the same time, the trimmed mean showed a 5.3% annual increase in October. Moody’s Analytics economist Harry Murphy Cruise remarked, “Australia’s October inflation print has no bad news. The lower-than-expected figure is an early Christmas present for households and businesses. Moreover, it spares the Reserve Bank Board from hiking in its meeting next week.” Nevertheless, analysts caution that the monthly inflation data heavily favored goods in the first month of the quarter. However, it did not include price changes for various services. Meanwhile, financial markets anticipate the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hold rates in December. Still, there is a 50% chance of a further hike to 4.60% in the first half of the next year. AUD/USD key events today The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report AUD/USD technical price analysis: Potential surge to 0.6700 If bulls stay strong On the charts, Aussie has surged to new heights above the 0.6600 key level. This move has strengthened the bullish bias by continuing the uptrend. Moreover, the price now sits well above the 30-SMA support, and the RSI is overbought. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- If bulls are still strong after the recent spike, the price might power on to the next resistance level at 0.6700. However, since the RSI shows overbought conditions, the price might retreat to retest the 30-SMA and the 0.6525 support level. The bullish trend will continue if bulls respect the 30-SMA support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/11/29/aud-usd-price-analysis-bulls-hit-4-month-top-despite-low-cpi/
2023-11-28 13:09
Investors anticipate a swift transition to US rate cuts in 2024. Sterling has surged nearly 4% against the dollar this month. Sunak disclosed £29.5 billion ($36.76 billion) in private-sector investments in Britain on Monday. On Tuesday, the GBP/USD outlook shone with bullish optimism, remaining above the key mark of 1.2600 as the Greenback stayed weaker. It’s on the brink of achieving its most remarkable monthly surge against the dollar in the past year. Notably, investors are abandoning the dollar, anticipating a quick transition to Fed rate cuts in 2024. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- In a potentially beneficial development for the pound’s long-term outlook, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak unveiled a series of foreign investments in Britain ahead of a business leaders’ gathering. The pound has risen nearly 4% against the dollar this month. Moreover, it is on course for its first monthly gain since June. Meanwhile, money market traders predict that the Bank of England will maintain higher interest rates for longer than the Fed in 2024. Consequently, this outlook has contributed to the pound’s recent rally. Just under two weeks ago, traders had factored in approximately 70 basis points in UK rate cuts for next year. However, after recent data releases, including business activity and inflation, this expectation has adjusted to around 60 bps. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, in a Monday interview, remarked that achieving the central bank’s 2% inflation target will be challenging. Furthermore, he attributed the recent decline in inflation to the correction of last year’s surge in energy costs. Concurrently, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will host global executives outside London this week to restore the country as Europe’s leading foreign direct investment (FDI) destination. GBP/USD key events today The US Conference Board consumer confidence report GBP/USD technical outlook: Bulls find their feet above the 1.2600 key level Bulls are charging ahead on the charts, making new highs above the 30-SMA. The bullish bias is strong, and the price is currently bouncing higher after breaking above the 1.2600 resistance level. Therefore, bulls will likely soon exceed the 1.2651 level. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- However, after a big swing away from the 30-SMA, the price usually pauses or retraces the upward move. Therefore, we could see bears return for a pullback. Moreover, bullish momentum is near an extreme level, with the RSI nearly overbought. Still, a pullback would only be a short pause in the uptrend unless the price breaks below the 30-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/11/28/gbp-usd-outlook-pound-poised-for-a-remarkable-monthly-close/
2023-11-28 12:36
The Federal Reserve might start interest rate cuts by the first half of next year. The euro has gained around 3.4%, marking its most significant monthly increase in a year. Data revealed a more substantial than expected drop in US new home sales in October. Tuesday witnessed a bullish EUR/USD price analysis as the US dollar tumbled to a three-month low against major currencies, setting the stage for its most significant monthly plunge in a year. Notably, this decline came amid expectations that the Fed might start interest rate cuts by the first half of the upcoming year. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the increased likelihood of earlier rate cuts by the Fed in 2024, compared to the European Central Bank, is putting pressure on the dollar today. Meanwhile, market pricing indicates a 23% chance that the Fed could begin easing monetary policy as early as March. At the same time, investors are closely monitoring various events and data this week. Over the month, the euro has gained around 3.4%, marking its most significant monthly increase in a year. On Monday, the dollar sustained losses following data revealing a more substantial than expected drop in US new home sales. The value dropped by 5.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000 units. Meanwhile, September’s sales were revised lower to 719,000 units from the previously reported 759,000 units. Therefore, there is little potential for a turnaround in the dollar. However, later this week, Q3 GDP numbers will come out. If the US economy can demonstrate sustained growth, we could witness a reversal and some dollar strength to end the month. EUR/USD key events today US CB consumer confidence for November EUR/USD technical price analysis: Euro bulls face a tough test at 1.0950 Euro bulls are still struggling at the 1.0950 resistance level. Meanwhile, the RSI still shows weakness in the uptrend that might lead to a reversal. If bulls fail to make a higher high by breaking above 1.0950, the trend will likely pause to consolidate or reverse to the downside. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Bears can take control if the price goes below 30-SMA. However, to reverse the trend, they would need to start making lower lows by breaking below the 1.0851 support level. Still, there is a chance the bulls will regain momentum. The price will likely take out the 1.1000 resistance in such a case. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/11/28/eur-usd-price-analysis-us-dollar-plunges-to-3-month-low/
