2023-11-20 14:21

The gold correction could be only temporary. The median line (ml) is seen as a dynamic support. The Canadian CPI and the FOMC Minutes should move the rate. The price of gold is going down right now, and it might go even lower. Currently, it’s at $1,971, which is quite a bit less than the highest point today, which was $1,985. This drop is normal after a period of growth. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Even though the US Dollar went down compared to other currencies, gold still dropped. The US Building Permits and Housing starts were better than expected on Friday. Today, the US will share the CB Leading Index, and there might be a 0.5% drop. Tomorrow, some important things are happening that could affect the market. The FOMC Meeting Minutes, RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, and Canadian inflation figures are coming out. The Consumer Price Index might show a 0.2% growth after a 0.1% growth last time. If inflation goes up, the BOC might have to make some decisions in their meetings, which could hurt the gold price. Also, data about manufacturing and services could make a big impact at the end of the week. Gold price technical analysis: Looking at the technical side of things for XAU/USD, it hit a roadblock at the 150% Fibonacci line, and now it’s going down. There’s a strong resistance around $1,996 that’s preventing it from going up. The rate tested the upper median line (uml) and is now moving towards the weekly pivot point of $1,968, which is a solid support level. The median line (ml) is like a moving support and a target for the downside. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- If the rate breaks these support levels, there could be a bigger drop, but it might just be a temporary setback. The rate might be taking a breather to gather more positive energy before going up again. Watch out for fake breakdowns below the median line (ml) because they could signal a new upward trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gold-price-consolidating-at-1970-awaits-canadian-cpi/

2023-11-20 11:22

Investors are focused on when the Federal Reserve might start cutting rates. There was an unexpected fall in British retail sales volumes for October. In October, there was a slight increase in US single-family homebuilding. As the new week dawned on Monday, a bullish glow enveloped the GBP/USD outlook as the pound rallied on a weakening dollar. This decline in the dollar came as investors focused on when the Federal Reserve might start cutting rates. Currently, markets have ruled out the possibility of further rate hikes from the Fed due to a weaker inflation reading. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, official data on Friday revealed an unexpected fall in British retail sales volumes for October, signaling financial strain among consumers. There was a 0.3% month-on-month decline, following a revised 1.1% drop in September, worse than initially estimated. Economists had expected a 0.3% rise in October sales volumes. Moreover, the figures align with the gloomy outlook for the British economy. Economic growth remains stagnant, and strong price pressures are fading slowly. Consequently, investors anticipate these factors will compel the Bank of England to lower interest rates next year. Furthermore, given the narrow escape from an economic contraction in the third quarter, the Friday figures indicate a risk of GDP being revised lower to a negative reading. Compared to the last year, retail sales were 2.7% lower. Meanwhile, data from the US on Friday showed a slight increase in US single-family homebuilding. However, the outlook for the near term suggests that activity may stay moderate due to elevated mortgage rates. These higher rates contributed to a significant decline in homebuilder confidence. GBP/USD key events today There are no key events today, which might lead to a slow start to the week for GBP/USD. GBP/USD technical outlook: Bullish bias holds, but momentum weakens. The GBP/USD price has bounced off the 1.2400 key support level and is approaching the 1.2501 resistance level. The bias is bullish, but the momentum has weakened. Additionally, this weakness can be seen in the RSI, which has made a bearish divergence while the price made a double top. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- If bulls are weaker, the price will likely fail to go above the 1.2501 resistance. Therefore, bears might resurface to push the price back to the 1.2400 support. However, if bulls regain momentum, the price will rise above the 1.2501 resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-outlook-pound-peaks-at-1-25-amid-softer-dollar/

2023-11-20 09:24

Traders are focused on when the Federal Reserve might start reducing rates. Futures indicate a 30% chance that the Fed could start rate cuts as early as next March. The euro reached its highest point in over two months. As we embark on the new week, the dollar extended its downward journey, painting an optimistic picture for the EUR/USD forecast. In response to the weakened dollar, the euro climbed to a level exceeding $1.0924. Consequently, it hit its highest point in over two months. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Traders solidified their belief that US rates have peaked and shifted attention to when the Fed might start reducing rates. Notably, the dollar index hit 103.64, marking its weakest point since September 1. This extends its almost 2% drop from last week, the steepest weekly decline since July. Weaker-than-expected US economic indicators, particularly a below-estimate inflation reading, led markets to rule out the possibility of further rate hikes from the Fed. Now, the focus is on the timing of the first rate cuts. Moreover, futures indicate a 30% chance that the Fed could initiate rate reductions as early as next March, according to the CME FedWatch tool. “The market will likely maintain relatively stable pricing for FOMC policy this week. Therefore, there will be limited catalysts for significant movements in the dollar,” stated Carol Kong, a strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Furthermore, she said, “In the event of an improvement in risk appetite, the dollar has the potential to weaken further.” Meanwhile, investors are awaiting the minutes of the latest Fed meeting later this week. These will provide insight into Fed policy. EUR/USD key events today Investors do not expect any key economic reports from the US or the Eurozone. Therefore, the pair will likely consolidate. EUR/USD technical forecast: Bullish momentum wanes above 1.0900. The bias for EUR/USD on the 4-hour chart is bullish, and the price has made a new high. EUR/USD currently trades above the 1.0900 key level. However, bulls are not making as strong candles as they did when the price broke above the 1.0750 key level. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the RSI is showing a bearish divergence with the price. It indicates weaker momentum in the bullish move. Consequently, bears might come in for a deep pullback or reversal. If that is the case, the price will likely break below the 30-SMA to retest the 1.0750 key level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-forecast-dollars-descent-favoring-euro-buyers/

2023-11-18 18:56

The GBP/USD weekly forecast is bullish as the pair ended the challenging week marking a 2-week top around 1.2500. The pair’s trajectory hinges on speculation about future central bank actions and the upcoming manufacturing PMI data. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Ups and downs of last week The US market, brimming with data, suggested the Federal Reserve (Fed) had concluded its interest rate hiking cycle. Coupled with subdued US Treasury bond yields, this sentiment allowed GBP/USD to recover lost ground. Soft US economic data fueled expectations of an extended Fed pause, with markets already pricing in cuts by May 2015. Notable indicators included a significant drop in US PPI in October, a US CPI inflation rate slowing to 3.2% YoY, and a negative 0.1% month-on-month retail sales in October. Additionally, US Initial Jobless Claims reached 231,000 in the week ending November 11. The dollar index touched a two-month low as the 10-year UST Bond yield dropped below 4.50%. Correspondingly, GBP/USD strengthened, surpassing the 1.2506 mark. GBP buyers remained resilient despite the British CPI falling to 4.6% YoY in October. In September, the UK ILO Unemployment Rate held at 4.2%, while Average Earnings Excluding Bonus increased by 7.7% 3M YoY. Market bets adjusted for potential BoE interest rate cuts in 2024. Sterling rallied against the dollar but faced headwinds towards the week’s end due to concerns about the Chinese property sector. Weakness in US Treasury bond yields led to a decline in USD/JPY, offsetting GBP/USD losses after weak UK retail sales dropped by 0.3% in October. GBP/USD key events/data next week Thin trading is anticipated on Wednesday due to Thanksgiving on Thursday. On Monday, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak, though not necessarily about monetary policy. No significant events are slated in the US economic calendar for that day. Key releases on Wednesday include US dollar valuations influenced by US Existing Home Sales and Minutes of Fed’s November meeting. Thursday focuses on the UK’s early Manufacturing and Services PMIs, while Friday features the United States S&P Global PMIs. Speeches by Federal Reserve policymakers will be closely observed for insights into the US interest rate outlook. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls keeping control The GBP/USD price wobbles around the 200-day and 100-day SMAs. The pair needs a strong impetus to break and stay above this resistance zone. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- However, the 20-day and 50-day SMAs have created a bullish crossover. It shows the potential of a continued rally. The 1.2500 level remains a tough nut. On the flip side, 1.2350 is a strong support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-poised-to-gain-in-thanksgiving-week/

2023-11-18 18:34

Gold price closed the week higher as the dollar struggled. The US inflation cooled down, putting pressure on the greenback. Technical correction may occur in gold amid profit taking. Gold weekly forecast is bullish as the price surged by 2.5% last week. The US Dollar weakened, and US Treasury bond yields declined. The upcoming week lacks significant macroeconomic events, providing an opportunity to focus on the technical analysis of XAU/USD for potential trading opportunities. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Ups and down last week Gold underwent a technical upside correction on Monday, driven by the absence of impactful data releases. Tuesday saw Gold gaining momentum, surpassing $1,970. Notably, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicated a monthly decrease in inflation from 0.4% in September to -0.1% in October, settling at 3.2% for the year. During the same period, the core CPI, excluding volatile energy and food prices, rose by 4%. The USD faced significant selling pressure, dropping by over 3% as the 10-year US Treasury bond yield fell below 4.5%. Consequently, XAU/USD saw an increase of more than 1%. US Retail Sales for October declined by 0.1%, outperforming the market’s forecast of a 0.3% contraction. However, Thursday’s initial jobless claims rose, impacting the dollar’s performance. Additionally, the Federal Reserve reported a 0.6% decrease in Industrial Production for October. Despite midweek volatility, gold made strides, moving towards $1,980. Even on the last trading day of the week, with falling UST yields, Gold continued its upward trend, peaking above $1,990, marking its highest point in a while. Positive sentiment was fueled by Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson’s statement that the bank’s balance sheet has no immediate end. Gold demand remained strong, with Indian buyers overlooking local price increases during Diwali festivities and China’s continuous accumulation of gold holdings maintaining high premiums. Gold’s key events next week The Federal Reserve will release meeting minutes on Tuesday, but market reactions are expected to be subdued as the focus shifts to a potential Fed policy change in 2015. Wednesday’s US economic docket includes October Durable Goods Orders and weekly Initial Jobless Claims. The market’s response will likely follow the usual pattern, with worse-than-forecast numbers affecting the dollar negatively and stronger supporting figures. Thursday marks the closure of US markets for the Thanksgiving Day holiday, followed by a half-day on Friday. Thin trading conditions may limit market response to S&P Global’s preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI surveys for November. Given the current market trends, investors should closely monitor technical changes in XAU/USD for potential opportunities. Gold weekly technical forecast: Buyers awaiting pullback The gold’s daily chart shows the price slowly climbing to the all-time highs of $2,075. The price maintains a well bid tone above the key SMAs. However, Friday’s close suggests a mild downside correction amid profit-taking. –Are you interested to learn more about crypto signals? Check our detailed guide- Hence, the metal may gather to buy traction once it dips to the demand zone. Breaking the zone may attract sellers, changing the outlook to bearish. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gold-weekly-forecast-buying-intensifies-as-dollar-tumbles/

2023-11-17 10:44

The bias is bullish as the USD depreciates versus its rivals. Taking out the 150% line activates more gains ahead. Only a bearish pattern could signal a new sell-off. The gold price continued its upward trend, buoyed by the Dollar Index’s recent decline. The depreciation of the USD has provided impetus for XAU/USD buyers to drive prices higher. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- The yellow metal achieved new highs following the release of disappointing economic data in the last trading session. Notably, the US Industrial Production reported a 0.6% decrease, surpassing the anticipated 0.4% growth. Additionally, the Capacity Utilization Rate declined to 78.9% from 79.5%, and Unemployment Claims surged to 231K, well above the expected 221K. Today brought further developments as UK Retail Sales disappointed with a 0.3% drop, falling short of the anticipated 0.5% growth. In contrast, Eurozone Final CPI and Final Core CPI met expectations, while Current Account exceeded them. Looking ahead, Canada is set to release RMPI, IPPI, and Foreign Securities Purchases. However, the spotlight remains on US data, with Building Permits expected at 1.45M compared to the forecasted 1.47M, and Housing Starts potentially dropping to 1.35M from 1.36M. It’s worth noting that better-than-expected data may exert downward pressure on XAU/USD after its robust rally. Gold price technical analysis: From a technical standpoint, the XAU/USD has demonstrated accelerated growth subsequent to a successful retest of the median line (ml) and the breach of the upper median line (uml). Currently positioned within a demand zone, it confronts the 150% Fibonacci line, serving as a dynamic resistance. A breakthrough of this upward barrier, coupled with the negation of the supply zone, signals the potential for further upward momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The warning line (wl1) stands out as a noteworthy upside target should the current rate of growth persist. Conversely, a false breakout beyond the 150% Fibonacci line, accompanied by the formation of a robust bearish pattern within the supply zone, could herald a new sell-off. As such, vigilant monitoring of these key technical indicators is advised to comprehensively understand potential market movements. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gold-price-near-2000-as-greenback-stays-red-after-cpi/