2025-07-21 12:35
The EUR/USD outlook shows the euro extending Friday’s gains. Fed’s Chris Waller said he was okay with a July rate cut. Traders are expecting the ECB to pause this week. The EUR/USD outlook indicates that the euro is likely to extend its gains from Friday, as the dollar pauses its rally. The decline came after comments from the Fed revealed that some policymakers are open to a rate cut in July. However, the overall outlook has shifted since last week’s upbeat inflation figures. The dollar gained last week due to a decline in Fed rate cut bets amid upbeat US data. However, on Friday, Fed’s Chris Waller said he was okay with a July rate cut since tariffs will likely have a small impact on inflation. This briefly weakened the dollar on Friday. However, most policymakers, including Powell, will likely maintain a cautious outlook for the future. Market participants expect higher tariffs to take effect starting August 1. Such an outcome would exacerbate the impact on inflation, leading to further delays in rate cuts. However, Trump continued his criticism of Powell last week. The US president is calling for lower interest rates. Meanwhile, conditions do not appear favorable for the Fed to lower borrowing rates significantly this year. Meanwhile, traders are expecting the ECB to pause again at a meeting this week. The central bank has met most of its objectives, allowing it time to catch its breath. However, the risk of higher tariffs could change that. EUR/USD key events today Market participants do not expect any key economic reports today. Therefore, the price will likely extend Friday’s move. EUR/USD technical outlook: Bulls eye the 1.1800 resistance after SMA break On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has broken above the 30-SMA, showing bulls have taken control. At the same time, the RSI has broken above 50, suggesting stronger bullish momentum. Sentiment shifted after the price met a solid support level comprising the 1.1600 key level and the 1.618 Fib retracement level. Initially, the price was on a downtrend that started at the 1.1800 key level. It traded below the 30-SMA, respecting it as resistance. At the same time, the RSI maintained its position below 50, supporting bearish momentum. However, bars failed to break below the 1.1600 support zone. As a result, bulls emerged and pushed the price above the SMA. If they maintain this new direction, EUR/USD will target the 1.1800 resistance. Otherwise, bears will retest the support zone. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/21/eur-usd-outlook-euro-extends-gains-after-fed-comments/
2025-07-21 10:25
The USD/JPY forecast shows a resilient yen despite a shift in Japan’s political landscape. Japan’s ruling party lost the election on Sunday. If there is no trade deal by August 1, Japan might face a 25% tariff on its goods. The USD/JPY forecast shows a resilient yen despite a shift in Japan’s political landscape. The currency edged higher against the dollar despite Japan’s ruling party losing majority seats in the Upper House. However, there is caution as market participants await the implications for the Prime Minister and US-Japan trade negotiations. The yen strengthened on Monday after Japan’s ruling party lost the election on Sunday. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s party got 47 seats out of the 50 required to win a majority in the Upper House. This means that Ishiba has lost most of his power. Already, the ruling party has lost majority of seats in the Lower House. The new loss means a difficult time trying to pass policies. At the same time, it means uncertainty on trade talks with the US. If there is no trade deal by August 1, Japan might face a 25% tariff on its goods. Such an outcome would weigh on the economy and the yen. USD/JPY key events today Market participants do not expect any key economic releases from Japan or the US. Therefore, they will continue to monitor tariff developments. USD/JPY technical forecast: Bearish RSI divergence On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken below the 30-SMA, showing bears have taken the lead. The price now sits below the SMA, with the RSI under 50, supporting a bearish bias. However, the price is still facing the 148.02 key support level. At the same time, bears must break below the previous low to form a lower low and confirm a new downtrend. Previously, the price was trading in a solid uptrend above the 30-SMA, making higher highs and lows. However, this stopped when bulls met the 149.01 resistance level. Here, they could not make a higher high. The price failed to break above the previous high, and the RSI made a bearish divergence. This allowed bears to push the price below the SMA. A break below 148.02 would confirm the shift in direction and clear the path to the 146.01 support level. However, if the price fails to break below the support level, bulls will likely return to retest the 149.01 resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/21/usd-jpy-forecast-yen-holds-firm-despite-political-chaos/
2025-07-19 10:57
EUR/USD held a narrow range amid conflicting ECB and Fed expectations. The dollar found support from strong US data and tariff-driven safe-haven flows. Next week’s ECB meeting and Eurozone PMIs will be key catalysts. The EUR/USD pair traded defensively, hovering around the 1.1600 mark. Early strength in the euro faded mid-week as traders re-evaluated the European Central Bank’s (ECB) stance in light of global trade uncertainty and softer regional data. The US data surprised to the upside as retail sales rose faster than expected, and jobless claims remained low, reinforcing the narrative that the Fed may keep rates higher for longer. Meanwhile, Trump’s comments about potentially expanding tariffs on European imports added a layer of risk-off sentiment that favored the dollar as a safe haven. Despite this, Eurozone inflation remained stable, and ECB officials maintained a neutral tone, with markets now expecting the ECB to hold steady in July. That said, the tone of Thursday’s ECB press conference will be critical, mainly if President Lagarde addresses trade tensions or hints at September easing. Key Events Next Week for EUR/USD The focus will shift to forward-looking indicators, with the ECB rate decision and Eurozone PMIs in the spotlight: ECB policy decision & press conference: Rates are expected to remain unchanged, but any dovish shift or concern over tariffs could pressure the euro. German & Eurozone PMIs: A soft reading could raise growth concerns, especially if services contract further. US preliminary PMIs & Durable Goods Orders: May influence the dollar’s momentum if data surprises to the upside. Markets will also react to ongoing geopolitical headlines, particularly developments in US-EU trade. EUR/USD weekly technical analysis: Make or break at 1.1600 The daily chart for the EUR/USD shows a mildly bearish momentum as the price turned below the 20-day SMA. However, the SMA is still pointing upwards. The price moved lower but found support below the 1.1600 mark. If the price holds, the pair may jump towards 1.1700. Alternatively, if the support is broken, the price may aim for the 100-day SMA at 1.1500 ahead of another support at 1.1455. The RSI is neutral, hovering around the 50.0 level, indicating that the pair requires a stimulus to move either way. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/19/eur-usd-weekly-forecast-neutral-outlook-ahead-of-ecb/
2025-07-19 10:27
GBP/USD remains under pressure amid persistent dollar strength and fading BoE rate hike bets. UK CPI surprised to the upside, but markets doubt the BoE will respond with another hike. Next week’s focus shifts to UK and US PMIs, both likely to shape GBP/USD’s near-term trajectory. The GBP/USD price closed lower for the week, sliding from the 1.3485 region toward 1.3400, as the US dollar found fresh demand and UK rate expectations softened. The major event was the UK CPI print, which came in hotter than expected at 3.6% YoY vs. 3.4% forecast. This initially boosted the pound, with traders pricing in a possible late-cycle rate hike by the BoE. However, the rally fizzled after BoE members remained non-committal on future tightening, citing underlying disinflationary trends and weak wage growth. Across the Atlantic, the US CPI data showed cooling inflation, but not enough to convince markets of a near-term Fed rate cut, especially as Fed Chair Powell’s comments leaned hawkish. Risk sentiment was further dampened by political headlines, including rumors (later denied) that Trump may replace Fed Chair Powell if elected. The dollar rebounded sharply after the denial, causing GBP/USD to fall. Upcoming Events for GBP/USD Next week offers a mix of high-impact UK and US data: UK S&P Global PMIs (Wednesday): A soft reading could reinforce concerns over UK economic momentum, weighing on sterling. US S&P Global PMIs (Thursday): The PMI readings may reveal the economic strength of the US that may potentially impact the Fed’s monetary policy. UK Retail Sales (Friday): The data will feed into broader sentiment about UK demand-side weakness. Markets will also be watching for Fed speak and BoE commentary, especially after the recent inflation prints. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Bears aiming for 100-day SMA The daily chart for the GBP/USD shows a weakening momentum as bearish pressure intensifies around 1.3400. However, the current price level coincides with a solid support. The last few daily candles show a bearish momentum, while the 20-day and 50-day SMAs have also turned bearish. The next target for the bears lies at the 100-day SMA near the 1.3300 region ahead of the next support at 1.3150. The RSI value is near 40.0, which indicates the probability of further downside cannot be ruled out. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/19/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-pound-poised-for-another-leg-lower/
2025-07-18 13:25
The GBP/USD price analysis shows declining expectations for Bank of England rate cuts. Pay growth in the UK slowed in the three months to May. US retail sales increased by 0.6% in June. The GBP/USD price analysis shows declining expectations for Bank of England rate cuts. A hotter-than-expected inflation reading and better-than-expected employment figures have pushed experts to predict only one more rate cut. Meanwhile, upbeat US retail sales data eased concerns about an economic slowdown. Data on Thursday revealed that pay growth in the UK slowed in the three months to May. Annual wage growth came in at 5.0%. However, the pound rose because it exceeded the forecast of 4.9%. It showed that the labor market was not in quite a terrible state. Therefore, it led to a decline in expectations for BoE rate cuts. Goldman Sachs analysts were initially pricing two rate cuts in August and September. However, after an upbeat inflation report and the jobs data, they only expect one cut in August. Meanwhile, in the US, retail sales increased by 0.6% in June, beating estimates of 0.1%. The report revealed robust consumer spending, boosting the dollar. It also eased worries about a slowdown caused by Trump’s tariffs. Upbeat inflation and positive sales data have lowered bets for a September Fed rate cut. Traders are now pricing a 54% chance of such a move. GBP/USD key events today Traders do not expect any key reports from the US or the UK today. GBP/USD technical price analysis: SMA break points to a sentiment shift On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken above the 30-SMA, indicating a shift in sentiment. Bulls have taken the lead after the price paused near the 1.3400 key level. Currently, the RSI is trading above 50, indicating solid bullish momentum. Initially, the price was trading in a solid downtrend. During this time, it kept below the 30-SMA and respected it as a resistance level. However, the 1.3400 support level proved difficult to break. This allowed bulls to take charge. Still, the price must detach from the SMA and climb higher to indicate a new direction. In this case, GBP/USD would retest the 1.3600 resistance. Moreover, it must start making higher highs and lows to confirm an uptrend. Otherwise, bears might return to retest the 1.3400 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/18/gbp-usd-price-analysis-uk-data-dampens-boe-rate-cut-bets/
2025-07-18 11:07
The USD/JPY outlook is pointing north as the dollar remains strong following upbeat retail sales data. US unemployment claims were well below the forecasts. The yen was fragile as markets awaited an election in Japan. The USD/JPY outlook points north as the dollar remains strong after upbeat retail sales data from the previous session. Meanwhile, the yen was fragile as a looming election in Japan created some political uncertainty. The US dollar and Treasury yields rose on Thursday after data revealed solid retail and core retail sales. Sales jumped by 0.6%, surprising economists who had expected a 0.1% increase. The data eased concerns about the state of the economy after Trump’s tariffs. Market participants also focused on jobs data, where unemployment claims were well below the forecasts. These reports, along with this week’s upbeat inflation data, led to a decline in expectations for a Fed rate cut. At the moment, market participants are only pricing a 54% chance of a rate cut in September. Meanwhile, the yen was fragile as markets awaited an election in Japan. Polls are showing that the ruling party might lose. Such an outcome would create uncertainty about fiscal policies. At the same time, it could complicate the ongoing trade talks between the US and Japan. Japan is working hard to avoid a 25% tariff on its exports to the US. USD/JPY key events today Market participants do not expect any key events today. Therefore, they will continue to digest Thursday’s releases. USD/JPY technical outlook: 149.01 resistance poses a challenge On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has paused its rally near the 149.01 level. This is where the price made its previous high. Meanwhile, it trades above the 30-SMA with the RSI above 50, supporting a bullish bias. The price has maintained a solid rally above the SMA, respecting it as support. At the same time, it has made higher highs and lows as it rose. However, after such a steep rally, bulls are struggling to break above the most recent high. The RSI has made a bearish divergence, indicating weaker bullish momentum. If bulls regain strength, the price will break above 149.01 and climb to retest the 150.00 key psychological level. However, if not, bears might break below the SMA and the 148.02 support, indicating a shift in sentiment. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/18/usd-jpy-outlook-dollar-elevated-amid-upbeat-consumer-spending/
