2025-06-27 10:25

The EUR/USD forecast is bullish, with eyes on the 1.1800 level as the dollar weakens further. The EU’s optimistic fiscal conditions support the growth outlook, lending further support to the euro. Markets now focus on the US Core PCE Price Index for further impetus. The euro extended its winning streak on Friday, with the EUR/USD pair posting its seventh consecutive daily gain and eyeing the 1.1750 handle, its highest level in around four years. The pair is on course to hit above 2% weekly gain as the bets for the Fed’s rate cut are mounting. A combination of factors, including dovish commentary from within the Fed, Trump’s criticism of the Fed, and dismal US data, has weighed on the greenback, fueling the euro’s bullish trajectory. The US dollar’s recent sell-off stems from the US President’s criticism of the Fed Chair and reportedly his potential replacement by September or October. The move has raised questions about the Fed’s independence, especially when policy decisions are finely balanced due to mixed economic signals. Traders now apprehend a quicker easing, further weakening the US dollar. The ECB and Fed’s divergence continues to play a pivotal role. The Fed is torn between softening growth and inflation risks, while the ECB has a clear path, pausing the easing cycle. The US economic data painted a gloomy growth picture. The US final Q1 GDP data showed a weaker-than-expected 0.5% contraction, compared to an estimated 0.2% decline. Meanwhile, consumer confidence dipped, and the jobless claims fell in the last two of three readings. US durable goods orders surged 16.4%, more than doubling the forecast. However, the increase was driven primarily by one volatile component: aircraft orders. Europe’s fiscal outlook is also optimistic as new defense and infrastructure spending could boost the Eurozone’s growth. On the trade front, EU-UK trade negotiations are progressing slowly. Meanwhile, US trade tariffs continue to threaten the growth outlook. The markets have now turned their focus to the US Core PCE Price Index, which is the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation. A modest 0.1% monthly and 2.6% annual prints are expected. A hotter inflation reading may pause the dollar’s decline and limit gains for EUR/USD. However, the broader trend projects a level of 1.1800 to 1.2000. EUR/USD Technical Forecast: Consolidating Gains at 1.1700 The 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD shows a consolidation around the 1.1700 handle, with a clear upside bias. However, the markets are looking for a catalyst to resume their upward momentum. The combination of a 20-period SMA and a support zone around 1.1650 presents strong support. The RSI is near the overbought zone, which may result in mild profit-taking. Alternatively, a move below the 1.1650 level may encounter resistance at 1.1600. However, a deeper retracement may look to test the 1.1450 level, which is the worst-case support for the pair. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/27/eur-usd-forecast-bulls-pause-at-1-1750-ahead-of-us-core-pce/

2025-06-27 07:58

Gold outlook remains fragile amid risk-on flows and dollar recovery. Mixed US data and a cautious Fed may keep the precious metal sidelined. Gold investments are rotating into other precious metals, keeping the yellow metal under pressure. The gold price extended its downward trajectory on Friday as risk sentiment improved, while the US dollar mildly recovered ahead of key inflation data. Spot gold prices fell around 1% to $3,289, posting a fresh 4-week low, and concluding a second consecutive weekly loss. The truce between Iran and Israel stays stable, with businesses and civilians returning to everyday life after two weeks of heightened conflict. The de-escalation has reduced the risk-off flows, as risk appetite has returned to equities and commodity markets. Adding to the bearish tone of gold, the US dollar slightly recovered, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. This comes despite intense selling pressure on the US dollar amid political developments, particularly renewed criticism of the Federal Reserve. According to reports, President Trump may replace Fed Chair Powell by September or October, several months before his term is set to end. Earlier this week, Powell showed a cautious stance during his testimony before Congress. He dismissed the chances of an immediate rate cut but left the door open depending on the inflation and labor data. That said, yesterday’s macroeconomic data sent mixed signals. The Q1 GDP came in at -0.5%, while weekly jobless claims fell, and durable goods orders data revealed the most substantial number in more than a decade, suggesting economic resilience. This data ambiguity has created uncertainty in the markets. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 70% probability of a rate cut in September, but only an 18% probability for July. Gold will likely remain vulnerable until the Fed’s monetary policy becomes clearer. Moreover, some of the gold’s outflows are rotating into other precious metals, such as platinum and palladium, as both hit multi-month highs this week. Meanwhile, silver also outperformed gold, hinting at a broader repositioning within the metals complex. However, traders have become cautious ahead of the key US Core PCE Index data. As the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the Core PCE Index remains in the limelight. Inflation is expected to rise 0.1% month-over-month to 2.6% year-over-year. If the data beats estimates, the Fed Chair’s cautious stance will be reinforced, and rate cuts can be delayed, which may boost the dollar. Contrarily, a weaker print may revive speculation of a cut in July. Gold Technical Outlook: Bearish Crossovers Dragging Down The 4-hour chart for gold presents a gloomy picture, as the primary support zone at $3,290-$3,300 has been breached, and sellers are now targeting the next key support level at $3,250. The 50-period and 100-period SMAs formed a crossover that triggered the sell-off, followed by another crossover between the 20-period and 200-period SMAs. If the support at $3,250 fails to hold, the price may further drag down to $3,204. Alternatively, finding buyers at the current level may help the metal regain the $3,300 level and recover further to the $3,330 area, as the RSI approaches oversold territory. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/27/gold-outlook-3300-pounced-amid-risk-on-eyes-on-core-pce/

2025-06-26 09:44

The EUR/USD price turns its head to 1.2000 as the US dollar weakens. Trump’s criticism of the Fed and shifting rate cut expectations weigh on the dollar. The looming tariff deadline and dovish Fed may push the euro further up. The EUR/USD price extends its winning streak to a sixth consecutive session on Thursday, surging to the highest level since September 2021, above the 1.1700 mark. The rally was primarily driven by dollar weakness amid Trump’s criticism of the Fed Chair and his potential announcement of a replacement, as well as the de-escalation in the Middle East. According to a WSJ report, President Trump could name a new Fed Chair as soon as September or October, several months ahead of Powell’s official term ending in May 2026. Such an announcement casts Powell as a “lame duck,” weakening his authority and raising the prospects of an early rate cut. According to CommerzBank analysts, political pressure and division within the Fed may accelerate the odds of monetary policy easing, with markets now expecting another 20-basis-point rate cut by year-end. The shift in the Fed’s rate expectations has left the US dollar vulnerable. Even though the central bank has not yet pivoted toward cuts, the market narrative continues to evolve. Although the relationship between US dollar interest rate expectations is not always consistent, the persistent dovish drift from the policymakers lends enough room to the euro. Adding to the dollar’s weakness, the July 9 tariff deadline is looming with little to no progress. Trump’s unpredictable stance on trade policies continues to be a headwind for the USD. In the event of tariff imposition, the dollar may rally further, but it will pose a risk to global growth. According to ING analysts, the EUR/USD is fundamentally strong enough to test the 1.1800 level, while staying above the 1.1700 area. The probability of hitting the 1.2000 psychological mark is also high. While the Eurozone data is sparse and the ECB remains sidelined for now, the euro derives its strength from the dollar’s weakness due to political and monetary uncertainty in the US. The markets are now focusing on the US Q1 GDP data and the US Core PCE Index report. EUR/USD Price Technical Analysis: Buyers Firm for 1.2000 The 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD shows a strong bullish bias with key SMAs (20, 50, 100, and 200) lying one above another. The breakout of the previous swing high, followed by a seizure of the 1.1700 level, poses a greater upside risk, leading to a test of the 1.1800 level. The medium-term target and psychological mark of 1.2000 may be tested earlier than expected. However, the RSI lies in the extreme overbought zone, which may trigger profit-taking. The pair may pull back to the 1.1700 level ahead of the resistance that has turned into support at 1.1640. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/26/eur-usd-price-eyes-1-18-as-trump-targets-fed-dollar-buckles/

2025-06-26 08:15

The GBP/USD outlook is extremely bullish after the dollar loses further due to Trump’s criticism of the Fed. Iran-Israel ceasefire continues to underpin the global risk sentiment. Markets are now eyeing the Q1 GDP and Core PCE Index data from the US. The British pound extended its bullish momentum for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday, pushing the price to a fresh 41-month top near mid-1.3700. The rally stems from improving global risk sentiment and pressure on the US dollar driven by tension in Washington. The greenback is experiencing a broader sell-off after President Trump renewed his criticism of the Federal Reserve’s independence. Trump labeled Fed Chair Powell as “terrible” after his testimony before Congress, where he reiterated the data dependence and showed no urgency to lower the rates. The US President also hinted at replacing Powell as soon as this summer. The Dollar Index plunged below 97.50 as markets interpreted Trump’s threat as a political intervention with the central bank. While the US side faces central bank politics and mixed economic data, the British pound shows resilience. Domestic concerns about a cooling labor market and softer inflation hopes are striking at the pound’s strength. A British Chamber of Commerce survey revealed that around one-third of SMEs plan to cut jobs due to rising National Insurance costs. BoE Governor Bailey also pointed out the softening of the labor market during his testimony earlier this week. Nevertheless, the markets remain primarily focused on US dynamics and broader risk sentiment. The ceasefire between Iran and Israel has lifted the risk appetite and shifted capital flows off the US dollar. Traders are now eyeing today’s US Q1 GDP and Friday’s US Core PCE Index report. Softer-than-expected data may increase the odds of a September rate cut, which will further weaken the US dollar. GBP/USD Technical Outlook: Bulls Aim for 1.4000 The 4-hour chart of the GBP/USD reveals a strong bullish trend as the price lies well above the key SMAs. The pair broke the resistance at 1.3635 with a strong push towards 1.3750. The price is building the case to test the 1.4000 psychological mark. On the other hand, the pair may experience profit-taking as it has overextended, and the RSI indicates an extreme overbought condition near the 80.0 level. The pair may test the resistance-turned-support at 1.3635 before resuming the uptrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/26/gbp-usd-outlook-testing-41-month-top-amid-risk-on-flows/

2025-06-25 13:45

The EUR/USD forecast is strongly bullish despite a mild pullback from YTD highs. A weaker dollar amid dovish Fed expectations keeps the Euro bullish. Markets are eyeing US Q1 GDP and US Core PCE Index data for further impetus. The EUR/USD price is trading slightly lower on Wednesday during the early New York session, after posting a two-day rally to fresh YTD highs. Despite the pullback, the pair remains close to the highest level since November 2021, supported by global risk sentiment, weaker oil prices, and the US dollar. The ceasefire between Iran and Israel, announced by President Trump, sparked broader optimism across financial markets. As a result, the safe-haven demand for the dollar lost traction. Although both sides are at peace, the stability is still too fragile. Both sides can resume hostilities if provoked. However, the markets have so far welcomed the de-escalation, favoring riskier assets, such as the Euro. The subdued dollar boosts the Euro. The Dollar Index remains depressed around mid-97.00, close to a three-year low, as it is pressured by dovish Fed expectations. Although the Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained a cautious stance in his testimony before Congress on Tuesday, the markets are still expecting a 50 bps cut by the end of 2025. On the European side, macroeconomic data is steady but not strong enough to drive markets. French Consumer Confidence remained unchanged at 88.0, while Spain’s Q1 GDP confirmed a growth of 0.6% q/q and 2.8% y/y. The US Consumer Confidence Index fell from 98.4 to 93.0, revealing concerns for jobs and economic growth. As markets digest Powell’s second round of testimony today, the upcoming US data, including Q1 GDP and the Core PCE Index, are key to watch. EUR/USD Technical Forecast: Buyers Aiming for 1.1700 The EUR/USD 4-hour chart displays a consolidating pattern near the multi-month high. The uptrend is intact as the price stays well above the 20-period SMA. Moreover, the bullish crossover of the 20-SMA and 50-SMA also presents room for upside. The RSI is also off the overbought zone but above 50.0 and sloping upwards. Overall, the pair is now trading within a broad range of 1.1450 to 1.1650. The price is expected to remain within these two levels unless a catalyst emerges to push it further higher towards the 1.1700 mark. The path of least resistance lies on the upside. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/25/eur-usd-forecast-mild-pullback-to-1-16-after-ceasefire-rally/

2025-06-25 09:38

The gold forecast remains broadly bullish with a few corrective jitters due to the ceasefire. The Fed Chair’s wait-and-watch policy weighs on gold’s uptrend. Market participants are eyeing key US data and the second round of Powell’s testimony. Gold prices are consolidating above the $3,300 mark after retreating to a 2-week low earlier this week. Although the Israel-Iran ceasefire has alleviated some geopolitical concerns, the durability of the peace remains uncertain. Moreover, shifting odds for US monetary policy continue to keep market participants on their toes. The initial optimism after President Trump’s announcement of a “complete and total ceasefire” prompted risk-on flows and pressured safe-haven assets, including gold. However, conflicting developments and missile launches from both sides have cast doubts on the stability of the ceasefire. The geopolitical risk premium may keep the yellow metal supported despite softening demand for safe-haven assets. On the other hand, the US dollar attempted a significant recovery on the back of Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish remarks. In his testimony to Congress, Powell warned that tariffs may reignite inflation, and the Fed is not in a hurry to cut the rates. Despite this, the markets retain their dovish expectations, with futures pricing a 50-bps cut by the end of 2025 and a 20% chance of a move as early as July. Gold has been sensitive to these shifting expectations of monetary policy. Lower interest rates increase the demand for non-yielding assets, such as gold, due to a lower opportunity cost of holding. Now, traders await the second round of Powell’s testimony and critical U.S. economic data, including Q1 GDP and the Core PCE Index. Gold’s next meaningful move depends on these factors. Gold Technical Forecast: Mild Bearish Pressure Near 200-SMA The gold price found decent support under the $3,300 level and bounced back. The price managed to move beyond the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. However, it still lies well below the 20-period and 50-period SMAs. The selling pressure has not yet been elevated. A move below the $3,300 support may drive the price towards the next support zone at $3,250. The RSI level under 50.0 also supports a mildly bearish view. Alternatively, a sustained move above $3,350 may prompt an intense bullish action, leading to $3,400, followed by $3,450, and ultimately the all-time highs around $3,500. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/25/gold-forecast-stable-above-3300-after-ceasefire-fed-signals/