2025-07-24 10:54

The GBP/USD outlook indicates growing concerns about the UK economy. The UK services PMI eased from 52.8 to 51.2. The pound rallied after Trump announced a trade deal with Japan. The GBP/USD outlook indicates growing concerns about the UK economy following PMI data, which has put a lid on the pound’s gains. Business activity in the country grew only weakly, increasing pressure on the Bank of England to lower borrowing costs. Meanwhile, market participants continue watching trade developments that have recently boosted risk appetite. Data on Thursday revealed that business activity in the UK grew weakly. Notably, the services PMI eased from 52.8 to 51.2. Meanwhile, economists had expected the figure to hold at 52.8. The weak business activity data follows other economic reports, which show slow pay growth and a contraction in the economy. Although the UK has already secured a trade deal with the US, the economy is struggling, which could force the central bank to implement more rate cuts. Market participants are pricing an 80% chance of a cut in August. Meanwhile, the pound has rallied recently, along with other risk assets, following Trump’s announcement of a trade deal with Japan. The news eased worries about a global trade war. At the same time, reports indicate that a deal with the EU may be forthcoming, which could further boost risk appetite. GBP/USD key events today US unemployment claims US flash manufacturing PMI US flash services PMI GBP/USD technical outlook: Sellers emerge near 1.3600 resistance On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has pulled back after nearing the 1.3600 key resistance level. However, it still trades above the 30-SMA, showing bulls are in the lead. Meanwhile, the RSI trades above 50, supporting bullish momentum. The rally started recently when the previous decline paused near the 1.3400 key support level. Bulls took over by pushing the price above the 30-SMA and have maintained a steep rally. After such a sharp move, the price might need to pause and retest the SMA before continuing higher. A break above the 1.3600 key level would strengthen the bullish bias and allow GBP/USD to reach the 1.3750 key resistance level. However, bears have formed a strong candle at the top of the rally, which could shift the sentiment. Still, the bullish bias will remain intact as long as the price stays above the 30-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/24/gbp-usd-outlook-pound-rally-stalls-amid-economic-concerns/

2025-07-24 10:37

The EUR/USD forecast shows the euro steady ahead of the European Central Bank meeting. Market participants expect the ECB to keep interest rates unchanged. The European Union is nearing a trade deal with the US. The EUR/USD forecast indicates that the euro remains steady ahead of the European Central Bank meeting. Meanwhile, business activity data from major Eurozone economies aligned mainly with expectations. Market participants are also closely watching the progress in trade talks between the US and the European Union. On Thursday, the European Central Bank will hold its policy meeting. Market participants expect the central bank to maintain its current interest rate policy. The ECB’s monetary easing campaign has had a positive impact on the economy and inflation. Therefore, policymakers are under no pressure to cut interest rates. Still, traders are pricing one more rate cut this year, likely in December. Meanwhile, the outcome of business activity data from France and Germany was largely expected. Germany’s services sector continued growing, supporting the case for a pause in rate cuts. Elsewhere, reports have shown that the European Union is nearing a trade deal with the US. The deal would impose a 15% reciprocal tariff on goods from the Eurozone. It would be half of the 30% Trump had promised. Therefore, it would allow the economy to continue its recovery. EUR/USD key events today ECB main refinancing rate ECB monetary policy statement US unemployment claims ECB press conference US flash manufacturing PMI US flash services PMI EUR/USD technical forecast: Steep rally nears the 1.1800 resistance On the technical side, the EUR/USD price trades above the 30-SMA, indicating bulls are in the lead. At the same time, the RSI trades near the overbought region, showing solid bullish momentum. The price recently broke above the 1.1701 key resistance, which solidified the bullish bias. Bulls are now eyeing the next hurdle at the 1.1800 level. Initially, EUR/USD was in a downtrend, trading below the 30-SMA, with the RSI under 50. However, this changed when the price reached the 1.1600 key support level. Bulls emerged with solid momentum, and the downtrend failed to continue lower. Instead, the price broke above the SMA, indicating a shift in sentiment. Given the solid bullish bias, the price may soon reach the 1.1800 resistance level. A break above will strengthen the bullish bias. However, the price might pull back to retest the SMA before climbing higher. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/24/eur-usd-forecast-euro-holds-firm-ahead-of-ecb-decision/

2025-07-23 10:10

The AUD/USD forecast indicates a stronger Australian dollar as risk appetite improves. Trump announced a trade deal with Japan. Economies like the EU, Canada, Mexico, South Korea, and Brazil are still facing the risk of higher tariffs. The AUD/USD forecast indicates a stronger Australian dollar as risk appetite improves following the US-Japan trade deal. Market participants are hopeful more countries will sign deals before the August 1 tariff deadline. The Australian dollar rallied after Trump announced a trade deal with Japan. The trade agreement leaves Japan with a 15% reciprocal tariff on its exports to the US. At the same time, Trump said Japan would invest $550 billion in the US. The trade deal has saved Japan from facing a 25% higher tariff. At the same time, it has increased market optimism about ongoing trade talks. More trade deals reduce the risk of a global trade war that would hurt risk appetite. As a result, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar gains with each deal. However, major economies like the EU, Canada, Mexico, South Korea, and Brazil are still facing the risk of higher tariffs come August 1. At the same time, some of these nations are prepared to retaliate if the tariffs are implemented. Therefore, there remains uncertainty about the global economy’s outlook, which will likely keep a lid on Australian gains. AUD/USD key events today Market participants are not anticipating high-impact releases from Australia or the US. Therefore, all focus will remain on trade developments. AUD/USD technical forecast: Bulls gear up to challenge the 0.6590 range resistance On the technical side, the AUD/USD price is approaching the 0.6590 range resistance zone. The price trades far above the 30-SMA, with the RSI in the overbought region, suggesting a solid bullish bias. However, since the price still trades within its range, it is in a bigger consolidation. AUD/USD has traded in a sideways move between the 0.6500 support and the 0.6590 resistance. Bears have attempted to break out of the range on several occasions, but with no success. In the most recent attempt, the price broke below the 0.6500 support. However, bulls swiftly returned to push the price back into the range. Afterwards, they pushed above the 30-SMA and have maintained a sharp rally to the range resistance. A break above the resistance will strengthen the bullish bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/23/aud-usd-forecast-aussie-soars-amid-risk-on-rally/

2025-07-23 09:24

The USD/JPY price analysis indicates optimism following reports of a trade deal between the US and Japan. Japan will invest $550 billion in the US. Japan’s PM Shigeru Ishiba might resign next month. The USD/JPY price analysis indicates optimism following reports of a trade deal between the US and Japan, which has boosted the yen. However, the currency gave up some of its gains after reports that Japan’s Prime Minister is planning to step down next month. The yen soared after Trump announced a trade deal with Japan that sets its reciprocal tariff at 15%. At the same time, Japan will invest $550 billion in the US. The news came as a surprise to most, as talks between Japan and the US had been ongoing for some time. Initially, market participants were concerned after Trump threatened a 25% tariff on Japan. The worries grew after a shift in the country’s political landscape. The ruling party lost its majority in the upper house, causing political uncertainty. However, there was downward pressure after news that Japan’s PM Shigeru Ishiba will resign next month. The elections on Sunday put the leader in a difficult position after he lost majority in the upper house. His resignation would create more uncertainty about the next leader. USD/JPY key events today Neither the US nor Japan will release key reports today. Therefore, traders will continue to digest the US-Japan trade deal. USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bearish bias strengthens with new lows On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has dropped further below the 30-SMA, confirming the recent reversal. The price trades well below the SMA, showing bears have a strong lead. At the same time, the RSI is under 50, supporting solid bearish momentum. Bears have maintained the lead since the price broke below the SMA and the 148.02 key support level. At the same time, the price has made a lower high and low, a sign that the new downtrend is developing. The next target for bears is at the 146.01 support level. A break below this level will strengthen the bearish bias. Moreover, it will allow USD/JPY to retest the 144.00 support level. However, the decline might pause briefly at the 146.01 support level, allowing the SMA to catch up. The bearish bias will remain intact as long as the price stays below the SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/23/usd-jpy-price-analysis-yen-climbs-on-us-japan-trade-optimism/

2025-07-22 10:19

The USD/JPY price analysis indicates resilience in the yen. Japan’s Ishiba said he would remain the Prime Minister despite losing the majority of seats in the Upper House. Trump has threatened a 25% tariff on Japan starting August 1. The USD/JPY price analysis indicates resilience in the yen after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced he would remain in office despite losing Sunday’s election. At the same time, a decline in the dollar and Treasury yields amid tariff uncertainty has supported the yen. The yen soared on Monday after Ishiba said he would remain the Prime Minister despite losing the majority of seats in the Upper House. Ruling with no majority in the Upper or Lower House will be difficult for him. Passing policy changes will become trickier, making the outlook for Japan’s politics uncertain. However, at the moment, his confidence has boosted optimism. However, there is uncertainty about trade talks between the US and Japan. Trump has threatened a 25% tariff on Japan starting August 1. If there is no deal by then, the export-reliant country could suffer from weaker demand. This would complicate the outlook for Bank of Japan rate hikes. Meanwhile, the dollar was fragile as market participants lost hope for more trade deals. Meanwhile, the risk of a global trade war is escalating as countries prepare to respond to the imposition of higher tariffs. Such an outcome would further slow down the US economy, hurting the greenback. USD/JPY key events today Market participants will continue to weigh the impact of Japan’s election, as there are no key economic releases scheduled. USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bears eye the 146.01 support in new downtrend On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken below the 148.02 support to form new lows, further confirming the new downtrend. The price trades below the 30-SMA, with the RSI below 50, favoring a bearish bias. The new bias followed a double top at the 149.01 level, accompanied by a bearish RSI divergence. The pattern revealed weakness in the uptrend, allowing bears to push the price below the 30-SMA and the 148.02 support level. After breaking below 148.02, the price pulled back to retest the level. If it bounces lower after the retest, it will form a lower low, suggesting a bearish trend. In that case, bears would target the 146.01 support level. A break below this level would solidify the bearish bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/22/usd-jpy-price-analysis-yen-holds-firm-as-ishiba-vows-to-stay-on/

2025-07-22 08:59

The USD/CAD outlook indicates a slight rebound in the dollar. All eyes are now on the looming August 1 tariff deadline. The European Union is planning a tariff retaliation. The USD/CAD outlook suggests a slight rebound for the dollar as traders await updates on tariffs. The greenback fell on Monday amid uncertainty about ongoing trade talks. At the same time, market participants were concerned about the Fed’s independence amid the continuing conflict between Trump and Powell. All eyes are now on the looming August 1 tariff deadline. Talks between the US and its trading partners are dragging on, and hopes of more trade deals are fading. The European Union is already planning a retaliation, indicating that officials are not confident an agreement will be reached before the new deadline. A retaliation would mean a trade war that would further slow down the US economy. This would put pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs, putting pressure on the dollar. Meanwhile, Canada may face a 35% tariff on its goods if no deal is reached by the deadline. Such an outcome would have a significantly detrimental impact on the economy. However, at the moment, traders are still hoping for a deal or an extension past the deadline. Elsewhere, the conflict between Trump and Powell might simmer on, especially after an upbeat US inflation report. Bets on a Fed rate cut have dropped, and the central bank may remain cautious. This conflict has raised concerns about the central bank’s independence. USD/CAD key events today Traders do not expect any key economic reports from Canada or the US. Therefore, focus will remain on trade developments. USD/CAD technical outlook: Bears near the 1.3650 support On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has broken below the 30-day simple moving average (SMA), indicating a bearish shift in sentiment. At the same time, the RSI has dropped below 50, showing stronger bearish momentum. The change came after the price failed to break above the 1.3750 resistance level. Initially, bulls took control by pushing the price above the 30-day simple moving average (SMA). However, soon after that, momentum faded and bulls stopped making big swings. Instead, the price stuck close to the 30-SMA. Bears finally took charge when the shallow uptrend paused near the 1.3750 resistance. Nevertheless, USD/CAD must push lower to confirm a new downtrend. This means retesting the 1.3650 support level. A break below would solidify the downtrend and clear the path to the 1.3575 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/22/usd-cad-outlook-dollar-finds-footing-after-mondays-slide/