2025-07-28 11:41
The AUD/USD outlook indicates a rebound in the dollar. The latest trade deal came on Sunday between the US and the EU. Traders expect Powell to keep his cautious tone. The AUD/USD outlook indicates a slide amid the US dollar’s rebound as optimism grows over recent trade deals. The agreements have begun to lift the cloud of uncertainty over policy and the economy. At the same time, market participants are looking forward to the FOMC policy meeting, where Powell might maintain his cautious tone. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- The latest trade deal came on Sunday between the US and the EU. The deal has lowered the EU tariff from 30% to 15%. As a result, the two countries have averted a trade war that would have harmed their economic growth. The US-EU deal comes soon after the US-Japan deal, and it has increased hopes for more deals. At the same time, it has improved the outlook for the US economy, which will allow the Fed to have a clearer policy path. “The mood music on US trade negotiations has been a little brighter following agreements with Japan and the EU,” said Paul Mackel, global head of FX research at HSBC. “If more ‘trade deals’ are reached, this could help to reduce this source of policy uncertainty that has weighed against the dollar, at least for now.” Meanwhile, traders expect Powell to keep his cautious tone when the bank meets this week. AUD/USD key events today Traders are not anticipating any key releases from Australia or the US. However, trade developments have increased market volatility. AUD/USD technical outlook: Bears approach the range support On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has fallen far below the 30-SMA after a false bullish range breakout. At the same time, the RSI has dropped well below 50, indicating solid bearish momentum. Although the price trades within a range, bears have the upper hand. -If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- AUD/USD has maintained a sideways move between the 0.6500 support and the 0.6590 resistance levels. Bears and bulls have made several attempts to break out of this consolidation but have failed. Bulls made the most recent attempt by pushing the price above the 0.6590 resistance. However, they could not sustain a move higher, and the price reversed at the 0.6620 level. Given the stronger bearish bias, the price is likely to retest the range support soon. A break below the level would allow bears to retest the 0.6460 level. Otherwise, the range will continue. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/28/aud-usd-outlook-greenback-gains-as-trade-sentiment-improves/
2025-07-28 11:37
The EUR/USD forecast shows a sudden decline in the euro. The new trade deal leaves the EU with a 15% tariff. Traders are preparing for the FOMC meeting and the NFP report. The EUR/USD forecast shows a sudden decline in the euro after a trade deal between the US and the European Union. The initial relief has faded, and traders believe the trade deal was not the best possible outcome. Meanwhile, market participants are gearing up for the FOMC meeting and US employment figures this week. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- The US has signed a trade deal with the EU, finally easing concerns about a 30% tariff set to take effect next month. Moreover, the deal came at the right time since the August 1 deadline is approaching. However, it still left the EU with a 15% tariff. Initially, top officials were going for a zero-tariff agreement. Therefore, the outcome was still not the best. As a result, the euro collapsed on Monday. “The deal’s investment provision will draw capital flows out of Europe, strengthening the dollar overall against the euro,” said Shoki Omori, chief desk strategist at Mizuho Securities. “Taken together, weaker relative growth prospects and a deteriorating balance of payments argue for a gradual depreciation of EUR/USD once the initial relief fades, notwithstanding the overnight uptick,” he said. Meanwhile, traders are preparing for a packed week with the FOMC policy meeting and the US nonfarm payrolls report. EUR/USD key events today Market participants do not expect any key releases from the US or the Eurozone. Therefore, focus will remain on the recent trade deal. EUR/USD technical forecast: Bearish momentum surges past the 1.1701 level On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has collapsed and broken below the 30-SMA and the 1.1701 key support level. At the same time, the RSI has broken below 50, showing a shift in sentiment to bearish. -If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- Initially, the price was trading above the SMA and making higher highs and lows. At the same time, bulls were eyeing the 1.1800 key resistance. However, they were unable to get to the level as bears suddenly gained enough momentum to push below the 30-SMA. With bears in the lead, the price might soon start making lower highs and lows. It might pull back to retest the 1.1701 level before dropping to retest the 1.1600 support. However, this will only happen if the price closes below 1.1701. Otherwise, bulls might return to challenge the 1.1800 key resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/28/eur-usd-forecast-sharp-fall-after-initial-us-eu-trade-optimism/
2025-07-26 22:48
The USD/JPY weekly forecast points to cautious tones from Powell and Ueda. The yen gained after Prime Minister Ishiba said he would stay on. A surprise trade deal between Japan and the US boosted the yen. The USD/JPY weekly forecast points to cautious tones during next week’s Fed and Bank of Japan policy meetings. Ups and downs of USD/JPY The USD/JPY price ended the week red but far above its lows. The price fluctuated throughout the week as traders focused on elections, tariffs, and economic data. The ruling party in Japan lost its majority in the upper house. However, the yen gained after Prime Minister Ishiba said he would stay on. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, a surprise trade deal between Japan and the US further boosted the yen. It lowered Japan’s reciprocal tariff from 25% to 15%. However, the pair reversed its decline after unemployment claims data revealed resilience in the US labor market, pushing the dollar higher. Next week’s key events for USD/JPY Next week, the US will release its GDP report, business activity data, and the nonfarm payrolls. At the same time, traders will focus on the FOMC policy meeting for clues on the next rate cut. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is also set to meet on Thursday. Both the Fed and the BoJ are likely to keep delaying their next moves due to the impact of Trump’s tariffs. Therefore, Powell might remain cautious about rate cuts while Ueda will remain cautious about rate hikes. USD/JPY weekly technical forecast: Bulls retarget the 149.01 resistance level On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is bouncing towards the 149.01 resistance after retesting the 22-SMA support line. The price has been in a corrective move between a key support trendline and the 149.01 key resistance level. Within this area, the price has chopped through the SMA, a sign that bears and bulls are almost equally matched. -If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- The corrective move came after a downtrend that paused at the 140.01 support level. Therefore, it might only be a pause as bears regain momentum. If this is the case, the price will likely soon break below the support trendline. To retest the 140.01 support. Such a move would also allow the previous downtrend to continue. On the other hand, if bulls are ready to take charge, the price will break above the 149.01 key resistance level. This would allow USD/JPY to retest the 154.02 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/27/usd-jpy-weekly-forecast-traders-await-fed-boj-meetings/
2025-07-26 22:43
The USD/CAD weekly forecast indicates likely pauses from the Fed and BoC. The dollar collapsed against most of its peers amid optimism about trade deals. Data revealed that US unemployment claims fell for the second week. The USD/CAD weekly forecast indicates that traders are gearing up for a pause by the Fed and the Bank of Canada. Ups and downs of USD/CAD The USD/CAD price had a bearish week but closed well above its lows. At the start of the week, the dollar collapsed against most of its peers amid optimism about trade deals. A deal between the US and Japan assured investors that there might be more such deals before the August 1 deadline. As a result, risk appetite soared and the dollar fell. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- However, by Thursday, the focus shifted to monetary policy. Data revealed that US unemployment claims fell for the second week. As a result, Fed rate cut bets eased and the dollar rallied. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Next week, traders will focus on major economic events, including the US GDP, FOMC meeting, and the nonfarm payrolls report. Meanwhile, Canada will release its GDP report, and the Bank of Canada will also meet next week. The most important events will be the policy meetings and the US employment report. The Fed will likely keep rates unchanged and maintain a cautious tone. The Bank of Canada will also continue its pause. Meanwhile, the NFP report will continue shaping the outlook for Fed rate cuts. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Triple bottom, bullish divergence signal reversal On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has broken above the 22-SMA, suggesting bulls are in the lead. At the same time, the RSI has broken above 50, suggesting stronger bullish momentum. However, the price remains in a tight range near the 1.3575 key support level. -If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- On a larger scale, USD/CAD is trading in a corrective move after the downtrend paused near the 1.3575 support level. Initially, the price was making lower highs and lows until it reached the support level. Here, bears were unable to break below despite three attempts. As a result, the price has made a triple bottom. Moreover, the RSI has made a bullish divergence, indicating weaker bearish momentum. This suggests that the 1.3575 level may mark a bottom for the downtrend. Moreover, bulls might soon break out of the tight consolidation to retest the 1.4000 key resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/27/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-markets-brace-for-fed-boc-pause/
2025-07-25 10:47
The GBP/USD price analysis shows a rebound in the dollar. US data revealed another week of declining unemployment claims. Data revealed a mixed performance for US business activity. The GBP/USD price analysis shows a rebound in the dollar as employment figures further lowered expectations for Fed rate cuts. At the same time, market focus turned to the upcoming Fed meeting where Powell might maintain his cautious tone. The dollar recovered on Thursday after data revealed another week of declining unemployment claims. Claims fell to 217,000 last week, the second week of declines. Meanwhile, economists had forecasted an increase to 227,000. The drop pointed to continued resilience in the labor market, which might convince the Fed to keep delaying rate cuts. Meanwhile, a separate report revealed a mixed performance for US business activity. The manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell from 52.9 to 49.5. Meanwhile, the services PMI unexpectedly increased from 52.9 to 55.2. At the end of the day, Treasury yields rose and the dollar gained against the pound. Market participants are more convinced the Fed will keep delaying rate cuts. As a result, they expect Powell to keep his cautious tone at the policy meeting next week. GBP/USD key events today Market participants do not expect any key economic releases from the UK or the US. Therefore, the pair could extend Thursday’s move. GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bears target the 1.3400 support On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken below the 30-SMA, a sign that bears have taken the lead. At the same time, the RSI has broken below 50, suggesting a stronger bearish bias. Bears took charge when the price met the 0.5 Fib retracement level and bounced lower. The bounce led to a sharp decline that broke below the 30-SMA. GBP/USD was initially trading in a strong downtrend before bulls took charge near the 1.3400 support level. They sustained a sharp swing to the 0.5 Fib level. However, they were not strong enough to start a bullish trend with higher highs and lows. Moreover, they were unable to maintain the price above the SMA. With bears back in the lead, the price will likely drop to retest the 1.3400 support level. A break below this level will confirm a continuation of the previous downtrend. At the same time, it would strengthen the bearish bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/25/gbp-usd-price-analysis-us-jobs-data-dims-rate-cut-hopes/
2025-07-25 08:54
The USD/JPY outlook indicates that focus has shifted from tariffs to upcoming central bank policy meetings. US business activity data was mixed. Traders expect Powell to maintain his cautious tone. The USD/JPY outlook indicates a shift in sentiment as the market’s focus shifts from tariffs to upcoming central bank policy meetings. The dollar recovered, while the yen remained fragile, as traders speculated on the upcoming Fed and BoJ policy meetings. The dollar recovered as the week came to a close, as the impact of the recent US-Japan trade deal faded. Traders focused on economic data on Thursday, which gave a mixed picture of the economy. The manufacturing sector unexpectedly contracted while the services sector expanded more than expected. Nevertheless, recent US economic data has led to a decline in Fed rate cut expectations. As a result, the timing for the next cut has moved to October. When the Fed meets next week, traders expect Powell to maintain his cautious tone. At the same time, the Bank of Japan will meet next week and likely keep rates unchanged. The trade deal has lowered tariffs on Japan and improved the prospects of BoJ rate hikes. However, experts believe the next hike might not come for some time. The economy must first survive Trump’s tariffs before policymakers gain the confidence to hike rates. USD/JPY key events today The pair might end the week quietly as market participants do not expect any key economic releases from Japan or the US. USD/JPY technical outlook: Bulls challenge the new downtrend at the 30-SMA On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has rebounded to retest the 30-SMA as resistance. However, it still trades below the SMA, meaning bears remain in the lead. Meanwhile, the RSI has broken above 50, showing bullish momentum is strengthening. Previously, the price declined sharply after it broke below the SMA. The SMA break was a sign that sentiment had shifted, and the new direction was down. However, bears paused when the price reached a solid support zone comprising the 146.01 key level and the 0.5 Fib retracement level. At this zone, bulls emerged to challenge the new decline. As a result, the price climbed to the 30-SMA. Given the new bearish bias, USD/JPY might respect the SMA as resistance and bounce lower. Meanwhile, a break above the SMA would allow bulls to retest the 149.01 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/07/25/usd-jpy-outlook-markets-pivot-to-central-bank-signals/
